Tropical Storm Podul (16W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3: 0000 UTC 8 August 2025

…Center of Podul passing near the northernmost Mariana Islands…

Current storm information:

• Position: 20.1°N 145.7°E

• Movement: NW at 9 knots (15 km/h)

• Intensity: 45 knots (85 km/h)

• Central pressure: 1002 hPa

Trend:

• Steady strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours.

Discussion:

Podul (named by JMA at 1800 UTC) is once again showing signs of being impacted by northeasterly subsidence as it passes very close to the Maug Islands. The circulation center has become fully exposed well to the northeast of the main area of convection, which has lost most of its structure. The circulation itself appears to be very compact yet robust, and despite the convection being sheared well away from the center, scatterometer data suggests the system is producing winds of 40 to 45 kts. Although a blend of the available Dvorak fixes (T2.0 to T3.0) and automated estimates (highest is a SATCON estimate of 42 kts) suggests a lower intensity, the intensity is upped to 45 kts based on the scatterometer data.

Podul is currently moving northwestward toward a weaker part of the ridge, but layer mean wind analysis and surface pressure observations suggest that the ridge is quite strong and has more or less built across the entirety of the subtropical Western Pacific. This ridging should result in Podul turning almost due west later today, and continuing on an almost due west trajectory for most of the forecast period. The model guidance is in very strong agreement on this track, with a gradual turn toward the west-northwest by Tuesday. Although there is still a bit of spread, most of the models keep Podul well northeast or north of Luzon through the next 5 days.

The intensity forecast is a bit tricky. As I’ve stated a few times now, compact systems are very sensitive to environmental changes. In this case, a mid- to upper-level low located well to the east, combined with a mid-level high off the coast of Japan, is producing strong northeasterly mid-level shear over Podul. This shear should subside as Podul moves westward, and the environment should be favorable for intensification. The intensity forecast has been scaled back a bit but is still higher than the JMA or JTWC forecasts, particularly toward the end of the forecast period. The ECMWF, HWRF, and HAFS models continue to be quite aggressive, so the forecast still makes Podul a Category 3 typhoon by Wednesday. However, if the subsidence persists as suggested by the GFS model, the intensity forecast may need to be scaled back even more. Needless to say, there is low confidence in the intensity forecast.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

• 00 hrs: 20.1°N 145.7°E – 45 kts

• 12 hrs: 20.9°N 143.5°E – 50 kts 

• 24 hrs: 21.6°N 142.6°E – 55 kts 

• 48 hrs: 22.3°N 138.9°E – 65 kts 

• 72 hrs: 22.4°N 133.3°E – 75 kts

• 96 hrs: 22.8°N 128.0°E – 90 kts

• 120 hrs: 23.8°N 124.1°E – 105 kts