Tropical Storm Podul (16W/Gorio) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9: 0000 UTC 11 August 2025

Podul continues to chug along with no change in strength.

Author

Will Weaver
August 10, 2025

…Podul continues to chug along with no change in strength…

Himawari-9 visible satellite image (Weathernerds). Yeah, Podul still looks the same.

Current storm information:

  • Position: 21.2°N 133.4°E

  • Movement: W at 12 knots (25 km/h)

  • Intensity: 50 knots (95 km/h)

  • Central pressure: 995 hPa

Trend:

  • Little change in strength is expected during the next 24 hours.

Watches and warnings:

  • There are no land-based watches or warnings in effect.

Hazards affecting land:

  • Interests in Taiwan and the Yaeyama Islands should monitor the progress of Podul.

Discussion:

F-16 SSMIS 89GHz microwave satellite image. The convection is still displaced well to the south and east of the circulation center.

This is a recording: Podul continues to be a system suffering the effects of strong northeasterly shear. Podul continues to consist of an intense area of convection displaced well to the south and southeast of a partially exposed circulation center. Podul has not changed much in organization, and the convection continues to lack overall structure or banding. Given that Podul has not changed a whole lot since the previous advisory, and Dvorak estimates range from T3.0 to T3.5, the intensity remains 50 kts. Notably, JMA has downgraded Podul from typhoon status.

The forecast has not changed either, which is a bit irritating because the GFS, HAFS-A, and ECMWF models do wildly different things. The GFS and HAFS-A models finally seem to be reading the room and do not appreciably strengthen Podul very much before it reaches the eastern coast of Taiwan, although the HAFS-A suggests a brief period of rapid intensification before landfall. The ECMWF ensemble models dramatically strengthen Podul during the next few days, with a number of members deepening Podul below 950 hPa. Given that Podul is currently in an environment of strong shear, with even stronger shear ahead, this seems quite unlikely. Even though model guidance shifts the shear direction from northeasterly to easterly by Tuesday (which would lessen its overall effect), the shear is still expected to be quite strong. The current forecast calls for little change in strength before Podul makes landfall in northern Taiwan on Wednesday. After landfall, Podul’s small circulation should be significantly disrupted by the mountainous terrain, and Podul should dissipate over eastern China on Thursday.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

  • 00 hrs: 21.2°N 133.4°E – 50 kts

  • 12 hrs: 21.4°N 130.5°E – 50 kts 

  • 24 hrs: 21.7°N 128.1°E – 50 kts 

  • 48 hrs: 23.7°N 122.7°E – 55 kts 

  • 72 hrs: 26.8°N 117.1°E – 25 kts inland

  • 96 hrs: Dissipated

JMA forecast map