Tropical Storm Penha (02W / Basyang) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5: 1200 UTC 5 February 2026

Penha strengthens slightly as it is about to make landfall in Mindanao...

Author

Will Weaver
February 05, 2026

…Penha strengthens slightly as it is about to make landfall in Mindanao…

Himawari-9 infrared satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 09.1°N 126.7°E

  • Movement: W at 14 knots (25 km/h)

  • Intensity: 40 knots (75 km/h)

  • Central pressure: 1000 hPa

Trend:

  • Little change in strength is forecast before Penha makes landfall, with gradual weakening expected thereafter.

Watches and warnings:

PAGASA wind signal map (click to enlarge)

Watches and warnings:

  • TCWS #2 (Philippines): Southern Negros Occidental, southern Negros Oriental, southern Cebu, Siquijor, southern Bohol, eastern Dinagat Islands, Camiguin, Surigao del Norte, Agusan del Norte, Surigao del Sur, northeastern Misamis Occidental, eastern Lanao del Norte, Misamis Oriental, northern Bukidnon, Agusan del Sur, northern Davao Oriental

  • TCWS #1 (Philippines): Southern Occidental Mindoro, southern Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Calamian Islands, northeastern Palawan, Cuyo, the entire island of Panay, Guimaras, southern Masbate, northern Negros Occidental, northern Negros Oriental, Cagayancillo, northern Cebu, Biliran, southern Samar, southern Eastern Samar, the entire island of Leyte, western Dinagat Islands, northeastern Zamboanga Sibugay, central and eastern Zamboanga del Norte, northern Zamboanga del Sur, southern Misamis Occidental, western Lanao del Norte, Lanao del Sur, northern Maguindanao del Norte, northern Cotabato, southern Bukidnon, Davao del Norte, northern Davao del Sur, Davao de Oro, central Davao Oriental

Areas that should monitor this system:

  • Philippines, particularly northern and central Mindanao, the Eastern and Central Visayas, and far northeastern Palawan

Hazards affecting land:

  • Heavy rainfall will move over Mindanao and the Eastern and Central Visayas later tonight and persist through Friday night. Although Penha is likely to dissipate late this weekend, the rainfall threat will persist into early next week. Localized flooding is possible in low-lying areas. For additional information, refer to products from your local weather office.

Discussion:

0914Z WSFM MWI 89GHz microwave satellite image, showing convective banding loosely wrapping into Penha’s center from the north and west

Penha’s center is just off the eastern coast of Mindanao, and microwave satellite imagery indicates the system has continued to become better organized. Although most of Penha’s convection is displaced to the west of the circulation center, the center itself is now obscured underneath the eastern edge of a central cold cover (CCC) with very cold cloud tops (-80 to -90°C). A WSFM MWI pass from about 0914 UTC suggested that convective banding continues to wrap loosely into the circulation center from the west, but the southeastern quadrant continues to struggle due to persistent easterly shear. A recent RCM-1 SAR pass recorded winds as strong as 54 kts northwest of the center, but it is likely that this measurement is inflated due to extremely high rainfall rates in that quadrant. Given nearby ship observations in the 30 to 35 kt range a good distance from the center, however, it does appear that Penha has strengthened. Dvorak fixes from KNES, RJTD, and PGTW range from T2.5 to T3.0 with CIMSS ADT, AiDT, and D-PRINT estimates in the 39 to 47 kt range. The intensity is therefore nudged upward to 40 kts.

The center of Penha is just offshore eastern Mindanao and should make landfall during the next couple of hours. No appreciable change in strength appears likely before then. Once Penha makes landfall, it should gradually turn toward the west-northwest as a subtropical ridge centered in the Luzon Strait shifts eastward. This will coincide with a significant increase in east-southeasterly shear as Penha moves across Mindanao and into the Bohol Sea, and steady weakening is forecast during the next day or two as Penha crosses Mindanao and parts of the Central Visayas. By the time Penha finds itself in the Sulu Sea on Saturday, a very strong northeasterly cold surge associated with a ridge building southward from China is expected to more or less obliterate the tropical cyclone. Most of the model guidance rapidly decays Penha into a trough of low pressure near northern Palawan by Sunday. A few GFS and ECMWF ensemble members do keep the circulation around a bit longer, but as the environment is expected to be overwhelmingly hostile for anything tropical to survive in, this seems unlikely.

The current forecast indicates dissipation by 72 hours, although it is possible that gale force winds could persist over portions of the Philippines through early next week due to the cold surge and the remnant pressure gradient left over from Penha’s decaying vortex.

Forecast positions and maximum winds (1-min)

  • 000 hrs: 09.1°N 126.7°E – 40 kts 75 km/h 

  • 012 hrs: 09.1°N 124.1°E – 35 kts 65 km/h over the Bohol Sea

  • 024 hrs: 09.5°N 122.2°E – 35 kts 65 km/h over the Sulu Sea

  • 048 hrs: 11.6°N 119.8°E – 30 kts 55 km/h

  • 072 hrs: Dissipated 

JTWC forecast map