Tropical Storm Penha (02W / Basyang) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3: 1200 UTC 4 February 2026

Depression strengthens into Tropical Storm Penha as it moves slowly westward...

Author

Will Weaver
February 04, 2026

…Depression strengthens into Tropical Storm Penha as it moves slowly westward…

Himawari-9 infrared satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 09.1°N 131.9°E

  • Movement: W at 6 knots (10 km/h)

  • Intensity: 30 knots (65 km/h)

  • Central pressure: 1002 hPa

Trend:

  • Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Watches and warnings:

PAGASA wind signal map (click to enlarge)

  • TCWS #1 (Philippines): Southern Samar, southern Eastern Samar, central and southern Leyte, Southern Leyte, Dinagat Islands, Camiguin, eastern Misamis Oriental, Agusan del Norte, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Sur, northern Davao Oriental

Areas that should monitor this system:

  • Philippines, particularly northern and central Mindanao and the Eastern and Central Visayas

Hazards affecting land:

  • Heavy rainfall will move over Mindanao and the Eastern and Central Visayas late Thursday into Friday. Although the system will likely dissipate by the end of the week, the rainfall threat will persist into the weekend. For additional information, refer to products from your local weather office.

Discussion:

The tropical depression east of Mindanao does not exactly have a classic satellite presentation, consisting of a partially exposed circulation center with convection displaced mostly to the northeast and southwest. The circulation itself remains fairly well defined, but is experiencing some dry air infiltration to the southeast of the center. The system is probably vertically tilted due to moderate easterly shear, with the large area of intense convection to the northeast of the surface center likely associated with the mid-level circulation center. Despite the system’s rather odd appearance, scatterometer data indicates a swath of 30 to 35 kt winds mainly to the north and west of the center, which remains well defined. Consensus T2.5 Dvorak fixes and automated estimates close to tropical storm strength support increasing the intensity to 35 kts, and so the depression is now Tropical Storm Penha, the second named storm of the very young 2026 season.

There are no major changes to the forecast. Penha is currently in the process of being captured by a ridge anchored over the northern South China Sea, and this ridge will likely result in Penha turning toward the west-southwest later tonight. Environmental conditions are likely to remain marginally favorable with persistent moderate shear and dry mid-level air, and so some slow strengthening appears likely before Penha makes landfall in northern Mindanao late Thursday night or early Friday morning. Following landfall, interaction with rough terrain combined with a dramatic increase in shear and a strong northeasterly cold surge will likely result in rapid weakening. Most of the available model guidance dissipates Penha’s circulation in the Sulu Sea by Saturday, though the GFS and HAFS-A models keep it around somewhat longer. Given how hostile the environment is expected to become, the forecast leans more toward the ECMWF and Google DeepMind ensembles and indicates dissipation by 96 hours.

Forecast positions and maximum winds (1-min)

  • 000 hrs: 09.1°N 131.9°E – 35 kts 65 km/h 

  • 012 hrs: 07.9°N 129.1°E – 40 kts 75 km/h 

  • 024 hrs: 08.2°N 126.9°E – 40 kts 75 km/h 

  • 048 hrs: 09.7°N 121.8°E – 35 kts 65 km/h 

  • 072 hrs: 10.9°N 119.9°E – 30 kts 55 km/h 

  • 096 hrs: Dissipated 

JMA forecast map