Tropical Storm Nuri (03W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3: 1200 UTC 11 March 2026

Tropical cyclone or headline goes here...

Author

Will Weaver
March 11, 2026

…Nuri remains nearly stationary and poorly organized…

Himawari-9 infrared satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 10.7°N 138.4°E

  • Movement: Stationary

  • Intensity: 35 knots (65 km/h)

  • Central pressure: 1000 hPa

Trend:

  • Some weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours and Nuri could dissipate at any time later tonight or on Thursday.

Watches and warnings:

  • Tropical storm watch: Yap and Ulithi in Yap State

Areas that should monitor this system:

  • Yap and Ulithi in Yap State

Hazards affecting land:

  • Nuri could produce areas of heavy rainfall over portions of Yap State during the next day or two.

Discussion:

Tropical Storm Nuri (named as such by JMA at 1800 UTC yesterday) has not moved or changed very much during the past 24 hours or so. Although Nuri’s circulation has become somewhat better defined on both satellite imagery and in scatterometer data, the convective structure continues to resemble a piece of abstract art rather than a tropical cyclone. Convection is mostly present in clusters and patches with little in the way of banding or organization. Most of the convection is displaced to the north and east of the circulation center due to moderate mid-level southwesterly shear, with stronger shear at the upper levels causing Nuri’s associated moisture to advect along a deep-layered trough positioned to the north. Despite Nuri looking like a mess, the scatterometer data suggests it continues to produce winds of 30 to 35 kts, and it remains a 35 kt tropical storm, in line with consensus T2.5 Dvorak fixes and CIMSS ADT, AiDT, and D-PRINT estimates ranging from 31 to 37 kts. 

While Nuri’s circulation has become a bit better defined, that isn’t going to translate into staying power. Environmental conditions are expected to become even more hostile as Nuri begins moving northeastward and the trough to the north amplifies and shear increases even more. Almost all of the available guidance loses Nuri’s vortex after about 18 to 24 hours, well before it reaches the Marianas, and as such Nuri is forecast to dissipate outright by hour 48. Given these model trends, Guam and the Marianas have been removed from the “areas that should monitor this system” list, but some areas of heavy rain are still possible there by the end of the week.

Forecast positions and maximum winds (1-min)

  • 000 hrs: 10.7°N 138.4°E – 35 kts 65 km/h 

  • 012 hrs: 11.9°N 138.8°E – 30 kts 55 km/h 

  • 024 hrs: 12.1°N 139.9°E – 25 kts 45 km/h Post-tropical/remnant low

  • 048 hrs: Dissipated

Forecast map