Tropical Storm Nokaen (01W/Ada) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9: 0000 UTC 18 January 2026

Nokaen rapidly becoming disorganized as it stalls out northeast of Catanduanes...

Author

Will Weaver
January 17, 2026

…Nokaen rapidly becoming disorganized as it stalls out northeast of Catanduanes…

Himawari-9 visible satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 14.4°N 124.2°E

  • Movement: Nearly stationary

  • Intensity: 40 knots (75 km/h)

  • Central pressure: 996 hPa

Trend:

  • Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Watches and warnings:

PAGASA wind signal map (click to enlarge)

  • TCWS #2 (Philippines): Eastern Camarines Sur, Catanduanes

  • TCWS #1 (Philippines): Central and eastern Quezon, Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, Burias & Ticao Islands, western and central Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Northern Samar

Areas that should monitor this system:

  • Philippines, specifically Catanduanes

Hazards affecting land:

  • Heavy rainfall chances for portions of the Philippines should diminish throughout the day today.

Discussion:

Himawari-9 infrared satellite image (Weathernerds)

Nokaen has fallen apart at the seams during the past 12 hours. Although CIMSS shear analysis indicates that shear is fairly light, a mid- to upper-level low has formed in the South China Sea and is funneling copious amounts of dry air into Nokaen’s circulation. This has resulted in Nokaen losing almost all of its convection, with some disorganized clusters located far to the north of the circulation center. The circulation itself has continued to broaden, and consists of a fully exposed swirl of low clouds moving very little off the northeastern coast of Catanduanes. Dvorak estimates range from T2.5 to T3.0 while CIMSS ADT and D-PRINT estimates range from 29 to 39 kts. The intensity is lowered to a potentially generous 40 kts, although it should be noted that multiple scatterometer passes have failed to detect any tropical storm force winds, and it is possible the circulation is no longer closed.

At this point, Nokaen likely no longer poses a significant direct threat to the Philippines. The environment is forecast to become even less favorable during the next day or two, and while Nokaen could continue to generate intermittent bursts of convection during that time, the cyclone should gradually spin down. Most of the model guidance indicates that Nokaen should degenerate into a non-convective post-tropical cyclone by Wednesday before decaying into a trough of low pressure on Thursday. 

Forecast positions and maximum winds (1-min)

  • 000 hrs: 14.4°N 124.2°E – 40 kts 75 km/h 

  • 012 hrs: 15.0°N 125.7°E – 40 kts 75 km/h 

  • 024 hrs: 15.9°N 126.5°E – 35 kts 65 km/h 

  • 048 hrs: 16.8°N 129.1°E – 35 kts 65 km/h 

  • 072 hrs: 16.1°N 131.2°E – 35 kts 65 km/h Post-tropical

  • 096 hrs: Dissipated

JTWC forecast map