Tropical Storm Nokaen (01W/Ada) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8: 1500 UTC 17 January 2026

Nokaen beginning to unravel as its center passes north of Catanduanes...

Author

Will Weaver
January 17, 2026

…Nokaen beginning to unravel as its center passes north of Catanduanes…

Himawari-9 infrared satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 15.2°N 124.1°E

  • Movement: NNW at 10 knots (20 km/h)

  • Intensity: 50 knots (95 km/h)

  • Central pressure: 994 hPa

Trend:

  • Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Watches and warnings:

  • TCWS #2 (Philippines): Eastern Camarines Sur, Catanduanes

  • TCWS #1 (Philippines): Southeastern Isabela, Aurora, Quezon (except for the far western region), Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, Marinduque, western and central Camarines Sur, Romblon, Albay, Sorsogon, northern Masbate, Northern Samar

Areas that should monitor this system:

This section is new for 2026 – not every agency issues local tropical cyclone watches or warnings. This is a general list of land areas that should monitor the progress of this system and plan accordingly, whether or not official tropical cyclone watches or warnings are in effect.

  • Philippines, particularly eastward facing coasts of Samar, Catanduanes, the Bicol Region, and southern and central Luzon

Hazards affecting land:

  • Although the center of Nokaen is forecast to remain away from land during the next few days, areas of heavy rainfall and occasional gusty winds and heavy surf are possible along the eastward facing coasts of Samar, the Bicol Region, central Luzon, and Catanduanes through Sunday. This rainfall could cause localized flooding; for further information, refer to products from your local weather office.

During the past 12 to 24 hours, Nokaen managed to find itself in a bit of a sweet spot with regards to the shear - a brief decrease in shear has resulted in Nokaen generating a large area of very intense convection that has persisted over the circulation center and extends well to the north and west. In the past few hours, however, the convective structure has become somewhat ragged, and the cold overcast that had been present has broken down into clusters. The surface circulation has also lost some definition and appears to be rather broad and partially exposed, and scatterometer data suggests that Nokaen may have multiple circulations near its estimated center location. Although the shear has lessened, a substantial amount of dry air has entrained into the circulation and there is basically no convection present to the south and east of the center. The intensity of 50 kts is based on Dvorak fixes ranging from T2.5 to T3.5, a CIMSS ADT estimate of 55 kts, and a D-PRINT estimate of 45 kts. At this point, this could be generous.

There are no changes to the forecast despite the higher initial intensity. The ridge over Vietnam has completely broken down, allowing the ridge centered near the Marianas to become the primary steering mechanism. This should result in Nokaen turning northward during the next few hours, before turning northeastward on Sunday evening. By Monday, the ridge is expected to build to the north of Nokaen, which will block any further poleward progress and cause the cyclone to turn eastward, then loop to the southeast through midweek. As the ridge builds westward, the shear is expected to increase dramatically, and this will lead to steady weakening through the end of the forecast period as Nokaen turns southwestward again. Although a 120-hour forecast point is provided, much of the model guidance suggests that Nokaen’s circulation will decay into a trough by that point. If it does survive, it will probably be devoid of convection anyway.

Although the forecast track suggests a return trip to the Philippines for Nokaen, it isn’t going to make it there.

Forecast positions and maximum winds (1-min)

  • 000 hrs: 15.2°N 124.1°E – 50 kts 95 km/h 

  • 012 hrs: 15.7°N 124.1°E – 45 kts 85 km/h 

  • 024 hrs: 16.4°N 124.6°E – 40 kts 75 km/h 

  • 048 hrs: 17.5°N 126.5°E – 35 kts 65 km/h 

  • 072 hrs: 17.2°N 128.8°E – 35 kts 65 km/h 

  • 096 hrs: 15.9°N 130.0°E – 35 kts 65 km/h Post-tropical

  • 120 hrs: 13.3°N 130.2°E – 30 kts 55 km/h Post-tropical/remnant low

JTWC forecast map