Tropical Storm Nokaen (01W/Ada) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5: 1200 UTC 15 January 2026

…Depression strengthens into Tropical Storm Nokaen as it continues moving slowly just east of the Philippines…

Current storm information:

• Position: 10.0°N 128.9°E

• Movement: NW at 4 knots (5 km/h)

• Intensity: 35 knots (65 km/h)

• Central pressure: 999 hPa

Trend:

• Some slow strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours.

Discussion:

TD 01W is continuing to be battered by moderate easterly to southeasterly shear, but it appears to have become a bit better organized. Although the system remains vertically tilted due to the shear, the mid-level circulation (which is displaced to the north of the surface center) is generating some robust convection with very cold cloud tops. This convection is being enhanced by robust poleward outflow associated with a subtropical jet located to the north, and some thin bands of convection extend across the Philippines and into the South China Sea. Scatterometer data indicates that the winds associated with the system have increased to 30 to 35 kts, and these data also indicate that the surface center may be reforming closer to the convection - north and west of the current estimate. Dvorak estimates also range from T2.0 to T2.5, with automated CIMSS ADT and D-PRINT estimates hovering around 32 to 33 kts. JMA has upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Nokaen, the first named storm of the 2026 season.

Nokaen has a complicated future ahead of it due to a weak steering regime that will persist for the next few days. At the moment, Nokaen is located in a col between two competing subtropical ridges and a weak upper-level trough located off the western coast of Luzon. The trough’s influence should cause Nokaen to continue moving slowly and erratically toward the north or northwest during the next couple of days. On this track, Nokaen will likely pass close to Samar and Catanduanes, but it is not expected to make landfall. By Saturday, the trough is expected to lift out, allowing ridging to build back in and cut off Nokaen’s escape route to the north. This should result in Nokaen looping toward the northeast, then the east. Persistent shear and dry air will likely preclude any major changes in strength during that period, and the intensity forecast is a blend of the JMA and JTWC forecasts.

Confidence in the forecast drops significantly at the 96 and 120 hour forecast points because of massive model spread. The GFS, HWRF, HAFS-A, and ECMWF models suggest that Nokaen will begin to turn back toward the Philippines at or just after the end of the forecast period. Google DeepMind is not on board with that scenario. Whatever the case, the shear is expected to become prohibitively strong by that point, and it is possible that there may not be much left of Nokaen at the end of the period. Indeed, most of the models that send Nokaen back to the Philippines dissipate the vortex just past day 5.

Forecast positions and maximum winds (1-min)

• 000 hrs: 10.0°N 128.9°E – 35 kts 65 km/h 

• 012 hrs: 10.6°N 128.3°E – 35 kts 65 km/h 

• 024 hrs: 11.6°N 127.1°E – 40 kts 75 km/h 

• 048 hrs: 13.4°N 125.4°E – 40 kts 75 km/h 

• 072 hrs: 14.6°N 125.5°E – 40 kts 75 km/h 

• 096 hrs: 15.0°N 126.7°E – 35 kts 65 km/h 

• 120 hrs: 14.9°N 128.1°E – 30 kts 55 km/h 

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