Tropical Storm Nakri (#29W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6: 1200 UTC 10 October 2025

Poorly organized Nakri forecast to pass east of Amami Oshima and Okinawa later tonight.

Author

Will Weaver
October 10, 2025

…Poorly organized Nakri forecast to pass east of Amami Oshima and Okinawa later tonight…

Himawari-9 infrared satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 27.0°N 130.8°E

  • Movement: Nearly stationary

  • Intensity: 35 knots (65 km/h)

  • Central pressure: 1004 hPa

Trend:

  • Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Watches and warnings:

  • Okinawa is currently under TCCOR 3.

Hazards affecting land:

  • Nakri is no longer expected to be a direct threat to land. However, it could cause areas of heavy rain and gusty winds along eastern coastal portions of the Ryukyu Islands and mainland Japan during the next several days. In addition, Nakri could generate heavy surf and life-threatening rip currents. For additional information, refer to products from your local weather office. Additional information for U.S. military interests can be found at the Stars & Stripes Pacific Storm Tracker: https://www.stripes.com/theaters/asia_pacific/storm_tracker/

Discussion:

WSFM MWI 89GHz microwave satellite image

Despite being in a more favorable environment, Nakri remains a highly disorganized tropical cyclone. The system consists of a nearly completely exposed and rather broad circulation, and most of the convection is displaced to the south and west of the center. It appears that the circulation center may be in the process of reforming closer to that area of convection given the broadening of the current center, and low cloud lines appear to be converging on an area underneath the convective canopy. Long story short, Nakri is a bit of a mess and is going nowhere fast due to weak steering currents and the possible center reformation. The intensity is held at a possibly generous 35 kts based on Dvorak fixes ranging from T2.0 to T2.5, a CIMSS ADT estimate of 31 kts, and a D-PRINT estimate of 35 kts.

Nakri is currently nearly stationary due to being stuck in a col between two competing subtropical ridges, left behind by Halong and the frontal boundary it’s interacting with. The ridge to the east is forecast to become the dominant steering mechanism, which will cause Nakri to turn northeastward, then east-northeastward during the next couple of days. As Nakri makes this turn and passes to the south of Japan, environmental conditions should be favorable for strengthening. By Monday, baroclinic forcing from a frontal boundary to the north should result in Nakri becoming a post-tropical cyclone. The post-tropical cyclone should turn east-southeastward over the subtropical Pacific as it rounds the ridge and weaken as it loses baroclinic support.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

  • 000 hrs: 27.0°N 130.8°E – 35 kts 

  • 012 hrs: 28.1°N 130.2°E – 35 kts

  • 024 hrs: 29.5°N 131.3°E – 45 kts

  • 048 hrs: 32.3°N 137.6°E – 60 kts

  • 072 hrs: 34.2°N 147.1°E – 65 kts

  • 096 hrs: 33.5°N 156.4°E – 65 kts Post-tropical/extratropical

  • 120 hrs: 32.6°N 167.2°E – 45 kts Post-tropical/extratropical

JMA forecast map