Tropical Storm Nakri (#29W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4: 1200 UTC 9 October 2025

Nakri expected to pass close to Amami Oshima on Friday.

Author

Will Weaver
October 09, 2025

…Nakri expected to pass close to Amami Oshima on Friday…

Himawari-9 infrared satellite image (Weathernerds). Not winning any beauty pageants.

Current storm information:

  • Position: 24.7°N 133.9°E

  • Movement: NW at 12 knots (25 km/h)

  • Intensity: 40 knots (75 km/h)

  • Central pressure: 1000 hPa

Trend:

  • Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Watches and warnings:

  • Okinawa is currently under TCCOR 3.

Hazards affecting land:

  • Interests in the Ryukyu Islands, including Okinawa, should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Okinawa and Amami Oshima late Thursday night through Friday afternoon. U.S. military interests can get additional information via the Stars & Stripes Pacific Storm Tracker: https://www.stripes.com/theaters/asia_pacific/storm_tracker/

Discussion:

METOP-C MHS 89GHz microwave satellite image

Nakri remains a rather poorly organized tropical storm due to the effects of strong easterly shear. The storm consists of a small area of deep convection displaced to the southwest of a partially exposed and slightly elongated swirl of low clouds. A deep-layer trough to the north is also impinging upon the system, and there is an area of very dry air just to the northwest of Nakri’s center. It does appear that this trough is in the process of repositioning, however, which would allow for a more favorable interaction between the two features soon. The intensity is held at 40 kts, hedged between Dvorak fixes of T2.5 to T3.0, along with CIMSS ADT, AiDT, and D-PRINT estimates ranging from 35 to 40 kts. 

The forecast track has been nudged westward a few times over the past couple of days, and this time is no exception. Most of the ensemble guidance as well as the operational GFS and ECMWF show a track very close to Okinawa and Amami Oshima during the next couple of days before ridging builds in to the east in the wake of Typhoon Halong moving out of the picture. Once the ridge builds westward, Nakri is forecast to turn sharply east-northeastward. Meanwhile, the environment is expected to become more favorable as Nakri approaches the Ryukyu Islands with decreasing shear and a more favorable trough interaction enhancing outflow, and this should enable some steady strengthening. Nakri will likely become a typhoon as it passes well to the south of mainland Japan on Sunday. By the end of the forecast period, Nakri will become embedded in the same mid-latitude flow that Halong currently is, and it will begin to lose tropical characteristics by the end of the forecast period.

The adjustments to the forecast track have warranted a TCCOR increase for Okinawa. Any deviation to the west of the current forecast track could bring potentially damaging tropical storm force winds to that island on Friday. 

Forecast positions and maximum winds

  • 000 hrs: 24.7°N 133.9°E – 40 kts 

  • 012 hrs: 25.8°N 132.8°E – 45 kts

  • 024 hrs: 26.8°N 131.1°E – 50 kts

  • 048 hrs: 29.0°N 131.0°E – 55 kts

  • 072 hrs: 31.5°N 135.9°E – 65 kts

  • 096 hrs: 33.0°N 143.5°E – 75 kts

  • 120 hrs: 33.7°N 150.8°E – 55 kts

JMA forecast map