Tropical Storm Nakri (29W, formerly 95W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2: 1200 UTC 8 October 2025

…Depression over the eastern Philippine Sea strengthens into Tropical Storm Nakri…

Current storm information:

• Position: 20.6°N 137.4°E

• Movement: NNW at 15 knots (25 km/h)

• Intensity: 35 knots (65 km/h)

• Central pressure: 1001 hPa

Trend:

• Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Discussion:

The tropical depression - now Tropical Storm Nakri - continues to experience the effects of strong northeasterly shear associated with the close proximity of Typhoon Halong and an upper-level ridge positioned to the north. Nakri’s circulation center is intermittently exposed just to the northeast of a large, sheared band of convection extending to the southwest of the center. Despite Nakri being a sharply vertically tilted system, its mid-level circulation appears to be fairly robust since the convection has decent structure despite being sheared. The intensity is increased to 35 kts based on the higher end of a range of Dvorak fixes ranging from T2.0 to T2.5 (with the T2.5s coming from PGTW and RJTD). Although the automated CIMSS intensity estimates are below tropical storm strength, scatterometer data indicates a large swath of 30 to 35 kts primarily to the east of the center.

There are currently no changes to the forecast, although this may change in future advisories. Nakri is currently moving quickly northwestward through a break in the subtropical ridge left behind by Typhoon Halong, and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. By Friday, Nakri should turn sharply east-northeastward as it reaches the northwestern periphery of the ridge. Unfortunately, at this point in the forecast there is some significant spread among the model guidance, with the HAFS-A model and the ECMWF and Google DeepMind ensembles showing a track further to the west than the GFS ensemble. The ECMWF, HAFS-A, and Google DeepMind tracks also indicate much more strengthening than the GFS suite, which makes sense as the environment should be more favorable at that point. For now, the forecast errs on the side of caution, showing more modest strengthening and a track east of the Ryukyu Islands, but if current trends continue, some adjustments to both the track and intensity may be necessary. Interests in those islands should monitor Nakri’s progress. 

Forecast positions and maximum winds

• 000 hrs: 20.6°N 137.4°E – 35 kts 

• 012 hrs: 22.3°N 135.7°E – 35 kts

• 024 hrs: 23.9°N 134.4°E – 40 kts

• 048 hrs: 26.3°N 131.4°E – 50 kts

• 072 hrs: 28.7°N 130.7°E – 55 kts

• 096 hrs: 31.1°N 135.3°E – 55 kts

• 120 hrs: 32.0°N 141.3°E – 55 kts