Tropical Storm Matmo (27W/Paolo) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3: 0000 UTC 2 October 2025

…Depression quickly strengthens into a tropical storm as it continues to approach Luzon…

Current storm information:

• Position: 14.6°N 127.6°E

• Movement: W at 10 knots (20 km/h)

• Intensity: 45 knots (85 km/h) 

• Central pressure: 1002 hPa

Trend:

• Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Matmo could become a typhoon before it makes landfall on Friday.

Discussion:

Tropical Depression 27W has continued to get better organized since the previous advisory. Convection continues to be organized in discrete bands wrapping well into the circulation center, and the system is exhibiting strong radial outflow. However, most of the convection remains lopsided to the west of the circulation center, and the convection near the center remains fragmented in clusters rotating around the center. Microwave satellite imagery also indicates that despite the convective bands wrapping into the center, there do not yet appear to be signs of an inner core. Dvorak fixes range from T2.5 to T3.0 while automated estimates from ADT, AiDT, and D-PRINT range from 38 to 45 kts. Given that the system has continued to organize, it seems reasonable to take the high end of this range of estimates, and the intensity is increased to 45 kts. JMA has upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Matmo.

Matmo continues to trip multiple rapid intensification aids, including RIPA and AI-RI, and although the percentages have come down, both of these aids continue to indicate very high chances of rapid intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours. Given that the environment appears to be conducive for rapid intensification with very low shear and extremely warm SSTs, it seems likely that some amount of RI will take place and it is possible Matmo could become a typhoon before it moves inland over northern Isabela or southern Cagayan on Friday. The winds listed below are above the current JMA and JTWC forecasts and are in line with the GFS and HAFS-A guidance which show Matmo reaching typhoon strength before landfall, although those models notably show a track further to the north than the JMA track.

After landfall, Matmo should weaken some as it traverses northern Luzon, and it should emerge off the western coast of Luzon by Friday night. The environment in the South China Sea should be conducive for restrengthening, and Matmo is forecast to regain typhoon strength by Saturday as it moves quickly west-northwestward. By Sunday, Matmo should begin weakening as it encounters cooler waters and increased shear, but it should still be a typhoon when it moves over the Leizhou Peninsula. Steady weakening is forecast through Monday, despite Matmo being likely to pass over the Gulf of Tonkin, and Matmo should weaken to a tropical depression over far northern Vietnam late Monday evening and dissipate over Laos by Tuesday.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

• 000 hrs: 14.6°N 127.6°E – 45 kts 

• 012 hrs: 16.1°N 125.7°E – 55 kts 

• 024 hrs: 16.9°N 123.0°E – 65 kts off the east Luzon coast

• 036 hrs: 17.5°N 120.8°E – 50 kts on the west Luzon coast

• 048 hrs: 18.3°N 117.2°E – 65 kts

• 072 hrs: 20.1°N 112.0°E – 80 kts 

• 096 hrs: 21.9°N 106.9°E – 55 kts inland

• 120 hrs: 22.0°N 102.0°E – 25 kts inland