Tropical Storm Lingling (18W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7: 0000 UTC 21 August 2025

Depression strengthens into Tropical Storm Lingling just off the Kyushu coast.

Author

Will Weaver
August 20, 2025

…Depression strengthens into Tropical Storm Lingling just off the Kyushu coast…

Himawari-9 visible satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 31.8°N 129.4°E

  • Movement: Nearly stationary

  • Intensity: 40 knots (75 km/h)

  • Central pressure: 997 hPa

Trend:

  • Gradual weakening is forecast, and Lingling is expected to dissipate on Friday.

Watches and warnings:

  • There are no land-based watches or warnings in effect.

Hazards affecting land:

  • Lingling is expected to produce heavy rainfall in portions of Kyushu beginning on Thursday and continuing through the weekend. This rain could result in flash flooding. For additional information, refer to products from your local weather office. U.S. military interests can find additional information at the Stars & Stripes Pacific Storm Tracker: https://www.stripes.com/theaters/asia_pacific/storm_tracker/

Discussion:

Composite radar image (CyclonicWx)

Tropical Depression 18W has managed to get substantially better organized in a short amount of time. Radar data and microwave satellite imagery indicates that the cyclone has developed a very compact inner core with convective banding wrapping tightly into the center. The convection has also increased in symmetry, suggesting that the dry air in the area has not substantially hampered the system’s development. Although scatterometer data has not found any tropical storm force winds, it is likely that the system is too small for those to resolve on the scatterometer imagery. Dvorak estimates range from T2.5 to T3.0 from the various agencies, and CIMSS ADT and D-PRINT estimates are 45 and 36 kts; the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Lingling with 40 kt winds.

Although Lingling is in a favorable environment, it is not moving much due to being situated under a strong mid- to upper-level ridge that has developed in the region. In addition, easterly shear is forecast to increase very soon, and combined with upwelling of cooler subsurface waters, this should preclude any additional strengthening before landfall. Lingling should make landfall on southern Kyushu tonight and dissipate over the rough terrain on Friday.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

  • 00 hrs: 31.8°N 129.4°E – 40 kts

  • 12 hrs: 31.8°N 130.0°E – 40 kts

  • 24 hrs: 32.0°N 131.5°E – 30 kts inland

  • 48 hrs: Dissipated

JMA forecast map