Tropical Storm Kalmaegi (31W / Tino) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3: 0000 UTC 2 November 2025

…Kalmaegi steadily intensifying as it passes well north of Palau…

Current storm information:

• Position: 11.0°N 134.4°E

• Movement: WNW at 13 knots (25 km/h)

• Intensity: 45 knots (85 km/h)

• Central pressure: 994 hPa

Trend:

• Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Kalmaegi could become a typhoon on Monday.

Discussion:

Kalmaegi is getting organized at a very quick rate. The system has a rather healthy appearance with a compact central dense overcast feature surrounded by impressive radial outflow boundaries and bands of convection extending primarily to the north of the center. There are indications that an inner core is developing, and microwave satellite imagery from 1627 UTC and 2357 UTC indicated the presence of a partial mid-level eye feature that is slightly tilted northwest from the circulation center due to some minor mid-level shear. Visible imagery supports this with convective hot towers flaring around the center with hints of this eye feature apparent. The intensity is increased to 45 kts, based on consensus T3.0 Dvorak fixes and an automated CIMSS ADT estimate of 43 kts.

There are no changes to the track forecast as the models remain in strong agreement that Kalmaegi will move generally westward during the next few days, with a slight dip to the west-southwest as the system approaches the Philippines and becomes captured by another mid- to upper-level ridge over the northern South China Sea. Kalmaegi is expected to move across Leyte and the Visayas on Tuesday before gradually turning west-northwestward as it moves away from Palawan under the influence of this ridge. Kalmaegi should be off the Vietnam coast by the end of the forecast period.

The intensity forecast is very problematic. The environment is expected to be favorable for rapid intensification due to very warm SSTs, ample oceanic heat content, and very strong poleward outflow enhancement. Rapid intensification aids (RIPA and AI-RI) continue to indicate high probabilities of rapid intensification during the next 72 hours, with RIPA indicating a 51.9% chance of a 55-kt increase in the next 48 hours. At this point, given Kalmaegi’s level of development, RI does appear likely, and it is explicitly forecast. The intensity forecast below is slightly above the JTWC forecast but is about in the middle of the guidance envelope. Kalmaegi will likely reach Category 3 intensity as it reaches Samar and Leyte on Tuesday. Some slight weakening is expected as Kalmaegi crosses the Visayas and northern Palawan before strengthening resumes in the South China Sea on Wednesday and Thursday. By the end of the forecast period, Kalmaegi’s strengthening trend should level off as it encounters cooler SSTs off the Vietnam coast, but it will likely still be a very intense typhoon at that point.

It needs to be noted that a tropical cyclone is not a point - impacts can and do extend far from the center. Readers are advised not to focus on the forecast track line.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

• 000 hrs: 11.0°N 134.4°E – 45 kts

• 012 hrs: 11.0°N 132.8°E – 60 kts

• 024 hrs: 10.8°N 129.8°E – 75 kts

• 036 hrs: 10.7°N 124.9°E – 100 kts

• 048 hrs: 10.7°N 127.4°E – 95 kts inland over Leyte

• 072 hrs: 11.5°N 119.7°E – 105 kts over water

• 096 hrs: 13.1°N 114.6°E – 115 kts

• 120 hrs: 14.7°N 110.2°E – 115 kts