Tropical Storm Hagupit (05W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7: 1200 UTC 8 May 2026

…Hagupit starting to lose organization as it continues trekking across the islands of Yap State…

Current storm information:

• Position: 8.6°N 139.0°E

• Movement: WNW at 7 knots (10 km/h)

• Intensity: 40 knots (75 km/h)

• Central pressure: 1001 hPa

Trend:

• Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Discussion:

The shear has begun to increase, and Hagupit is starting to look worse for the wear. There was a brief period of time following the previous advisory where nearly all of Hagupit’s convection sheared away leaving an exposed circulation center, and while convection has since redeveloped, the system is vertically decoupled and the low-level center is still exposed. This situation is quite evident on shortwave infrared satellite imagery, which shows a swirl of low clouds positioned to the south of Yap Proper while the convection and the mid-level circulation are hanging behind well to the east. Scatterometer data indicates that the circulation is still rather poorly defined and elongated, and it may be in the process of opening up into a trough. The intensity remains a potentially generous 40 kts, hedged between Dvorak estimates of T2.5 to T3.0 and a very wide range of CIMSS ADT, AiDT, and D-PRINT estimates ranging from 28 kts to 49 kts. 

Now that the low-level circulation is racing ahead of its convection, the writing is on the wall for Hagupit. A developing extratropical low pressure system off the coast of Japan and its associated cold front are in the process of eroding the strong subtropical ridge that has been steering Hagupit westward, and Hagupit should turn more toward the northwest later tonight or tomorrow. As it does, the shear is forecast to increase even more, and the air mass over the Philippine Sea will dry out significantly. These negative factors should quickly liberate Hagupit of its remaining convection as soon as Sunday, leaving it as a non-convective post-tropical cyclone or remnant low. Most of the model guidance dissipates the remnants well to the east of the Philippines early next week. 

Forecast positions and maximum winds (1-min)

• 000 hrs: 08.6°N 139.0°E – 40 kts 75 km/h

• 012 hrs: 08.6°N 138.7°E – 35 kts 65 km/h

• 024 hrs: 10.1°N 135.5°E – 30 kts 55 km/h

• 048 hrs: 11.3°N 132.5°E – 25 kts 45 km/h POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW

• 072 hrs: 12.2°N 130.0°E – 20 kts 35 km/h POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW

• 096 hrs: 13.8°N 129.5°E – 20 kts 35 km/h POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW

• 120 hrs: DISSIPATED