Tropical Storm Hagupit (05W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5: 1200 UTC 7 May 2026

…Disorganized Hagupit producing heavy rainfall and gusty winds over the eastern portion of Yap State…

Current storm information:

• Position: 7.4°N 142.1°E

• Movement: W at 8 knots (15 km/h)

• Intensity: 35 knots (65 km/h)

• Central pressure: 1000 hPa

Trend:

• Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Discussion:

Hagupit remains a poorly organized tropical storm. Recent HYSAT and Oceansat scatterometer data indicate that Hagupit has a very broad and elongated circulation that is poorly defined. The associated convection continues to be displaced mainly to the east of the center, and lacks any real organization, consisting mainly of flaring clusters and a few fragmented bands. Interestingly, neither the scatterometers nor a RCM-2 SAR pass from 0829 UTC were able to detect any winds of tropical storm force, with the strongest detected winds being about 25 to 30 kts. The intensity is kept at 35 kts for now based on consensus T2.5 Dvorak estimates and automated CIMSS ADT and D-PRINT estimates ranging from 26 to 40 kts, and this estimate could be generous.

The forecast for Hagupit is generally unchanged from the previous one. Hagupit is embedded within strong easterly flow associated with a strong ridge parked over the subtropical central Pacific. During the next couple of days, however, a strong extratropical low pressure system developing off the coast of Japan will drop a trough into the Philippine Sea, which will erode the ridge and cause Hagupit to begin moving in a more northwesterly direction. By Sunday, Hagupit will move into an area of much stronger westerly shear and very dry air, and these factors should result in rapid weakening. For some reason, some of the GFS and ECMWF ensemble models as well as the RIPA rapid intensification guidance continue to suggest significant intensification, but the environment is expected to be extremely hostile and this seems unlikely. The deterministic guidance, including simulated satellite imagery, indicates that Hagupit will be devoid of convection as soon as Monday and degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low. The remnant low will likely linger in the Philippine Sea through the end of the forecast period, but redevelopment is not expected.

Forecast positions and maximum winds (1-min)

• 000 hrs: 07.4°N 142.1°E – 35 kts 65 km/h

• 012 hrs: 08.0°N 140.3°E – 40 kts 75 km/h

• 024 hrs: 08.9°N 138.4°E – 40 kts 75 km/h

• 048 hrs: 10.3°N 135.5°E – 35 kts 65 km/h

• 072 hrs: 11.7°N 132.9°E – 30 kts 55 km/h POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW

• 096 hrs: 12.6°N 130.2°E – 25 kts 45 km/h POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW

• 120 hrs: 15.0°N 129.5°E – 20 kts 35 km/h POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW