Tropical Storm Francisco (10W/Dante) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4: 0000 UTC 24 July 2025

Francisco becoming poorly organized and may be dissipating

Author

Will Weaver
July 23, 2025

…Francisco becoming poorly organized and may be dissipating…

Himawari-9 visible satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 24.2°N 127.6°E

  • Movement: NW at 11 knots (20 km/h)

  • Intensity: 40 knots (75 km/h)

  • Central pressure: 980 hPa

Trend:

  • Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours, but Francisco could dissipate at any time.

Watches and warnings:

  • There are no land-based watches or warnings in effect.

Hazards affecting land:

  • Francisco is likely to produce heavy rain and gusty winds over the Yaeyama and Ryukyu Islands (including Okinawa) today and Friday. 

  • Additional information for U.S. military interests on Okinawa can be found at the Stars & Stripes Pacific Storm Tracker: https://www.stripes.com/theaters/asia_pacific/storm_tracker/

Discussion:

Himawari-9 visible satellite image (Weathernerds)

Francisco’s circulation is quickly becoming poorly defined, and it is possible that the tropical storm could be dissipating. Satellite and scatterometer data indicates that the circulation is becoming stretched out and elongated from southwest to northeast, and the wind field resembles a sharp trough rather than a closed low. Visible satellite imagery indicates the presence of multiple low cloud swirls, with flaring clusters of convection located mainly to the east of the center. There is still discrete banding present, with a very large feeder band extending into the monsoon trough to the south. Although Dvorak and automated estimates are decreasing, the Oceansat-3 pass indicated that 35 to 40 kt winds were occurring north and northeast of the center, so the intensity remains 40 kts.

The forecast remains unchanged. Francisco remains embedded in the monsoon gyre and is expected to continue moving generally northwestward, and it should pass between Miyakojima and Okinawa during the next 12 to 24 hours. Given Francisco’s current state and the fact that the environment will soon get even less favorable with stronger deep-layer shear ahead, Francisco could dissipate at any time during the next couple of days, but the system should definitely dissipate by Saturday as it merges with a broad monsoonal system that will also absorb Typhoon Co-May.  

Forecast positions and maximum winds

  • 00 hrs: 24.2°N 127.6°E – 40 kts

  • 12 hrs: 25.3°N 125.9°E – 40 kts

  • 24 hrs: 26.3°N 124.0°E – 40 kts

  • 48 hrs: Dissipated

JMA forecast map