Tropical Storm Francisco (#10W/Dante) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3: 1500 UTC 23 July 2025

Francisco strengthens as it moves northwestward toward the Yaeyama Islands

Author

Will Weaver
July 23, 2025

…Francisco strengthens as it moves northwestward toward the Yaeyama Islands…

Himawari-9 infrared satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 22.6°N 129.1°E

  • Movement: NW at 12 knots (20 km/h)

  • Intensity: 40 knots (75 km/h)

  • Central pressure: 994 hPa

Trend:

  • Some slight additional strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours.

Watches and warnings:

  • There are no land-based watches or warnings in effect.

Hazards affecting land:

  • Francisco is likely to produce heavy rain and gusty winds over the Yaeyama and Ryukyu Islands (including Okinawa) on Thursday and Friday. 

  • Additional information for U.S. military interests on Okinawa can be found at the Stars & Stripes Pacific Storm Tracker: https://www.stripes.com/theaters/asia_pacific/storm_tracker/

Discussion:

Himawari-9 infrared satellite image (Weathernerds)

Francisco has strengthened since the previous advisory, although it is pretty clear that it has lost some organization as well. Although there is still discrete convective banding east of the center and strong equatorward outflow, the core convection has solidified into a central cold cover (CCC) pattern, and is sheared to the east of a partially exposed and increasingly poorly defined circulation center. CIMSS shear analysis shows 20 to 25 kts of westerly shear continuing to impact the system due to an upper-level trough situated over the East China Sea. Scatterometer and Synthetic Aperture Radar data indicated the presence of very light winds to the southwest of the center, which is an indication that the circulation may no longer be closed. For the moment, however, Francisco is maintained as a tropical storm, and the intensity is increased to a potentially conservative 40 kts based on T2.5 to T3.5 Dvorak fixes and a CIMSS ADT estimate of 41 kts, though the SAR pass measured winds of 53 kts northeast of the center. 

RCM-3 Synthetic Aperture Radar wind speed image from 0937 UTC. Note that the warm colors do not wrap all the way around the center of the system and that the ring denoting the center is open to the southwest.

Francisco remains embedded in a large monsoon gyre centered over the western Luzon Strait, and this wind flow is unlikely to change any time soon. Francisco is forecast to continue moving generally northwestward during the next couple of days, making its closest approaches to Okinawa and Miyakojima overnight Thursday into Friday. It is possible that Francisco could strengthen a little more during the next day or so, but by the time it passes between Okinawa and Miyakojima, much stronger shear and the breakdown of the monsoon gyre will cause the system’s circulation to broaden and eventually decay into a trough in the East China Sea by Friday.

The strongest winds and heaviest rain associated with Francisco will be east of its center. Tropical storm force winds and heavy rain are possible on Okinawa Thursday night into Friday, though winds will probably not reach the criteria for an elevated TCCOR level. Still, interests on that island should exercise extreme caution.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

  • 00 hrs: 22.6°N 129.1°E – 40 kts

  • 12 hrs: 24.1°N 128.4°E – 45 kts

  • 24 hrs: 25.6°N 125.3°E – 45 kts

  • 48 hrs: 26.8°N 122.3°E – 40 kts

  • 72 hrs: Dissipated

JTWC forecast map