Tropical Storm Fengshen (30W / Ramil) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6: 0000 UTC 19 October 2025

Center of poorly organized Fengshen passing very near Manila...

Author

Will Weaver
October 18, 2025

…Center of poorly organized Fengshen passing very near Manila…

Himawari-8 visible satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 14.0°N 120.8°E

  • Movement: WNW at 15 knots (25 km/h)

  • Intensity: 35 knots (65 km/h)

  • Central pressure: 1002 hPa

Trend:

  • Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Watches and warnings:

PAGASA wind signal map (click to enlarge)

  • TCWS #2 (Philippines): La Union, southern Benguet, southern Nueva Vizcaya, southern Quirino, Aurora, Pangasinan, northern Zambales, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Bulacan, Rizal, northern Metro Manila, coastal Quezon, Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte

  • TCWS #1 (Philippines): Babuyan Islands, the entirety of Luzon not under TCWS #2 except for eastern Sorsogon, the entirety of Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Burias Island, northern Ticao Island.

Hazards affecting land:

  • Fengshen should continue to produce areas of scattered heavy showers over portions of Luzon, Mindoro, and Palawan through late tonight. This rainfall could pose a localized flooding risk in low-lying areas. For additional information, refer to products from your local weather office.

Discussion:

Fengshen has decidedly not turned northwestward. The center of the poorly organized tropical storm is located almost over Manila Bay, well southwest of where previous forecasts have suggested it would be. The storm is also showing signs of being impinged upon by strong southwesterly shear associated with a trough digging into the northern South China Sea. Because of this, the circulation is somewhat elongated from north to south, and the convection mostly exists in clusters flaring to the west of the center. The convection over the Philippines appears to be much shallower with quickly warming cloud tops. The current intensity is held at 35 kts, balanced between CIMSS ADT and D-PRINT estimates below tropical storm strength and manual Dvorak fixes of T2.5 to T3.0. 

The models continue to insist that Fengshen will turn northwestward as it enters the South China Sea, but a look at the steering currents in the area suggests otherwise. While Fengshen appears likely to gain some latitude as it interacts with the trough to the northwest, it does not seem likely that it will gain as much as the GFS and ECMWF operational and ensemble models suggest it will. Because of this, Fengshen is likely to move in a more west-northwesterly motion during the next couple of days as it moves away from the Philippines. The trough should lift out on Monday, which should result in lower shear and enable some brief strengthening. Fengshen will likely peak in intensity on Tuesday before coming under the influence of strong northeasterly surface flow off the Taiwan Strait, which should turn Fengshen southwestward and also cause a fairly rapid weakening trend. The current forecast is south of the JMA forecast and is close to the Google DeepMind ensemble guidance.

Although the current forecast map shows a landfalling tropical cyclone in southern Vietnam, simulated IR satellite imagery suggests that Fengshen could be completely devoid of convection or even dissipate by the time it reaches land.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

  • 000 hrs: 14.0°N 120.8°E – 35 kts 

  • 012 hrs: 15.6°N 118.5°E – 40 kts

  • 024 hrs: 17.1°N 116.2°E – 50 kts

  • 048 hrs: 17.4°N 113.3°E – 60 kts

  • 072 hrs: 16.9°N 111.4°E – 55 kts

  • 096 hrs: 15.5°N 109.1°E – 35 kts

  • 120 hrs: 13.1°N 106.4°E – 20 kts Post-tropical/remnant low

Forecast map