Tropical Storm Fengshen (30W / Ramil) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5: 1500 UTC 18 October 2025

Fengshen finally turning toward the northwest as it begins to traverse across the Philippines...

Author

Will Weaver
October 18, 2025

…Fengshen finally turning toward the northwest as it begins to traverse across the Philippines…

Himawari-8 infrared satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 14.0°N 123.6°E

  • Movement: NW at 8 knots (15 km/h)

  • Intensity: 35 knots (65 km/h)

  • Central pressure: 1000 hPa

Trend:

  • Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Watches and warnings:

PAGASA wind signal map (click to enlarge)

  • TCWS #2 (Philippines): Southeastern Isabela, eastern Quirino, southeastern Nueva Vizcaya, northern and central Aurora, Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, northeastern Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, northeastern Albay, northern Sorsogon

  • TCWS #1 (Philippines): A large swath of Luzon, including the Babuyan Islands, is under TCWS #1. There are too many locations to list; refer to the graphic for detailed information.

Hazards affecting land:

  • Fengshen is likely to produce areas of heavy rainfall over portions of Luzon and the Central and Eastern Visayas through Sunday evening. Most of the rainfall will occur north of the center location, and storm total rainfall of 100 to 150 mm is possible through Sunday night. This rainfall could cause localized flooding. For additional information, refer to products from your local weather office.

Discussion:

WSFM MWI 89GHz microwave satellite image

Fengshen has finally made the much anticipated turn toward the northwest, and it has made a couple of landfalls in the process. Due to this land interaction and continued moderate shear, Fengshen has lost quite a bit of organization. Although Fengshen still has a fairly well defined ring of convection around its center, the rest of the convection has become highly fragmented and displaced to the west of the center. In fact, the deepest convection is occurring over the Sulu Sea well to the southwest of the center. The center itself remains a bit southwest of previous estimated forecasts and is just off the northern coast of Camarines Sur. Given how disrupted Fengshen has become, most of the available estimates (including pre-landfall Dvorak estimates) have decreased, and the intensity has been lowered to 35 kts.

The models finally seem to have caught on to the fact that Fengshen is not on track, and the ECMWF and Google DeepMind ensembles have shifted south accordingly. The GFS-based models continue to show a much sharper northwesterly motion and a track further north over Luzon. The current forecast is closer to the ECMWF/Google DeepMind guidance and shows Fengshen skirting the Bicol Region and the Polillo Islands before moving inland over central Luzon midday Sunday. Fengshen should quickly emerge over water overnight Sunday into Monday. Once it’s over the South China Sea, most of the guidance shows significant strengthening through midweek since the environment should be much more favorable, and Fengshen will likely become a typhoon by Wednesday. At that time, Fengshen should begin to interact with a strong cold surge/gap wind event off the Taiwan Strait, which should result in Fengshen turning southwestward and weakening. Although the 120-hour forecast point shows a tropical storm, simulated satellite imagery suggests that Fengshen may be completely devoid of convection by then.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

  • 000 hrs: 14.0°N 123.6°E – 35 kts 

  • 012 hrs: 15.2°N 122.0°E – 40 kts

  • 024 hrs: 16.8°N 119.6°E – 35 kts

  • 048 hrs: 18.5°N 115.9°E – 50 kts

  • 072 hrs: 18.7°N 114.4°E – 65 kts

  • 096 hrs: 17.4°N 112.5°E – 55 kts

  • 120 hrs: 15.7°N 110.4°E – 40 kts

Forecast map