Tropical Storm Fengshen (30W / Ramil) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4: 0000 UTC 18 October 2025

Depression becomes Tropical Storm Fengshen... Center of Fengshen is further south than previously estimated...

Author

Will Weaver
October 17, 2025

…Depression becomes Tropical Storm Fengshen… …Center of Fengshen is further south than previously estimated…

Himawari-8 visible satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 12.7°N 126.0°E

  • Movement: W at 14 knots (25 km/h)

  • Intensity: 40 knots (75 km/h)

  • Central pressure: 996 hPa

Trend:

  • Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Watches and warnings:

PAGASA wind signal map (click to enlarge)

  • TCWS #2 (Philippines): Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, northeastern Camarines Sur, Catanduanes

  • TCWS #1 (Philippines): A large swath of Luzon, including the Babuyan Islands, is under TCWS #1. There are too many locations to list; refer to the graphic for detailed information.

Hazards affecting land:

  • Fengshen is likely to produce areas of heavy rainfall over portions of Luzon and the Central and Eastern Visayas beginning later today and continuing through Sunday afternoon. Most of the rainfall will occur north of the center location, and storm total rainfall of 100 to 150 mm is possible through Sunday night. This rainfall could cause localized flooding. For additional information, refer to products from your local weather office.

Discussion:

WSFM MWI 37GHz microwave satellite image

The tropical depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Fengshen at 1800 UTC, and since then the system has continued to become better organized. Convection has increased substantially in coverage, although it remains lopsided mainly to the south and east of the center. A ring of convective hot towers has recently begun flaring around the circulation center, suggesting that Fengshen is beginning to build an inner core, though available microwave satellite imagery does not show this yet. The intensity is increased to 40 kts, based on Dvorak fixes ranging from T2.5 to T3.0 from the various agencies, although the 35-40 kt winds seem to be limited to a small area to the east of the center.

Fengshen’s position has been adjusted significantly to the south of the previous one, and the system appears to have undergone a couple of center reformations during the past 12 to 18 hours. Satellite imagery suggests that the center of Fengshen is located just northeast of Samar Island. The forecast is highly uncertain because the initial movement is clearly west at 14 kts, and most of the forecasts had Fengshen moving northwestward by now. Unfortunately, the overwhelming majority of the model guidance continues to suggest that Fengshen will turn northwestward, with the ECMWF and Google DeepMind ensembles showing a more gradual turn and the GFS and HAFS-A models showing a much sharper turn. The HAFS-A notably dissipates Fengshen east of Luzon within the next 36 hours before redeveloping it in the South China Sea. I really have no choice but to go along with the guidance, and the forecast continues to show a northwestward motion with landfall in Aurora on Sunday. Don’t be surprised if Fengshen tracks further south than the forecast indicates, however – one positive of that scenario would be a weaker system.

After Fengshen decides which portions of Luzon it wants to visit, it should encounter a more favorable environment in the South China Sea on Monday, and some modest strengthening likely through Wednesday before it begins interacting with a cold surge/gap wind event off the Taiwan Strait and turns west-southwestward. The northeasterly flow should cause Fengshen’s intensity to level off by the end of the period.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

  • 000 hrs: 12.7°N 126.0°E – 40 kts 

  • 012 hrs: 14.4°N 124.5°E – 40 kts

  • 024 hrs: 15.5°N 122.3°E – 40 kts

  • 048 hrs: 18.1°N 117.9°E – 50 kts

  • 072 hrs: 18.6°N 115.2°E – 55 kts

  • 096 hrs: 17.7°N 113.6°E – 60 kts

  • 120 hrs: 16.0°N 111.4°E – 60 kts

JMA forecast map