Tropical Storm Danas (05W) - Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7: 1200 UTC 7 July 2025

…Danas slowing down off the eastern coast of China…

Current storm information:

• Position: 27.1°N 121.7°E

• Movement: NNE at 7 knots (10 km/h)

• Intensity: 45 knots (85 km/h)

• Central pressure: 992 hPa

Trend:

• Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Watches and warnings:

• All typhoon warnings for Taiwan have been cancelled. There are no land-based watches or warnings in effect.

Hazards affecting land:

• Danas (and its remnants) is expected to produce widespread heavy rainfall over portions of southeastern China and Taiwan during the next several days. This rainfall will likely cause widespread severe flooding. For additional information and possible warnings, refer to products from your local weather office.

Discussion:

Danas remains a poorly organized tropical cyclone as it slows to a crawl in the far southwestern East China Sea. The tropical storm consists of fragmented bands of convection surrounding a rather broad surface circulation center. Radar imagery from CWA and CMA indicates that the circulation has managed to re-consolidate into a single center after consisting of multiple swirls earlier, with a broad ring of convection around it, but it would be a stretch to call this ring an eyewall. The strongest convection is located south and east of the center. The intensity is held at 45 kts, based mainly on consensus T3.0 Dvorak fixes from RJTD, PGTW, and KNES. CIMSS ADT and AiDT are slightly higher, but may be giving the current structure a bit too much credit.

Danas is currently in a somewhat favorable environment with low to moderate shear and warm waters, and it is possible that it could gain a little bit of strength during the next 12 hours or so. On Tuesday, the combination of a strong subtropical ridge building to the north and a developing monsoon gyre to the southeast will cause Danas to grind to a halt and make a sharp turn westward, making landfall on Tuesday evening. Interaction with the gyre should cause Danas to loop to the south near the coast of southeastern China. Although the GFS model brings Danas back out over the Taiwan Strait, most of the guidance keeps the circulation inland. In any event, increasing shear and land interaction will likely cause the already disrupted circulation of Danas to decay rapidly, and Danas will likely dissipate near the coast by Thursday.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

• 00 hrs: 27.1°N 121.7°E – 45 kts

• 12 hrs: 27.8°N 121.9°E – 50 kts

• 24 hrs: 28.0°N 120.9°E – 45 kts on the coast

• 48 hrs: 27.1°N 118.9°E – 35 kts inland

• 72 hrs: 25.2°N 116.9°E – 25 kts inland

• 96 hrs: Dissipated