Tropical Storm Danas (05W) - Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3, 0000 UTC 7/5/25

…Tropical Storm Danas crawling northeastward and strengthening…

Current storm information:

• Position: 20.3°N 117.4°E

• Movement: NE at 3 knots (5 km/h)

• Intensity: 45 knots (85 km/h)

• Central pressure: 992 hPa

Trend:

• Steady strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours, and Danas could become a typhoon tonight or on Sunday.

Watches and warnings:

• The No. 1 standby signal is active for Hong Kong and Macau.

• Interests in Taiwan and southeastern China should monitor the progress of Danas. Typhoon warnings could be needed for portions of Taiwan on Sunday. 

• Interests in the Batanes Islands should monitor the progress of Danas. Tropical cyclone wind signals could be needed for those islands on Sunday, although Danas is not forecast to reenter the PAR.

Hazards affecting land:

• Danas is expected to produce extremely heavy rainfall over portions of Taiwan and southeastern China, mostly along the coast of the Taiwan Strait. In addition, strong tropical storm or typhoon conditions are possible along those coasts on Sunday and Monday. Also, heavy monsoonal rainfall is possible in the Batanes Islands and along the northern and western coasts of Luzon on Sunday and Monday. For additional information, including possible warnings, refer to products from your local weather office. 

Discussion:

Danas is continuing to organize fairly rapidly as it drifts well off the northwestern coast of Luzon. The central dense overcast has continued to increase in coverage as northerly subsidence affecting the system gradually relaxes, and synthetic microwave imagery and composite radar imagery from Taiwan and the Philippines (standard microwave imagery is currently unavailable, much to my extreme annoyance) indicates that an eye feature may be forming. Danas continues to sport tight convective banding that feeds into the monsoon trough to the south. The intensity is increased to 45 kts, which may be conservative given that Dvorak estimates range from T3.0 to T3.5, although the automated estimates are a bit lower (43 kts ADT, 42 kts D-PRINT).

The models are starting to come into agreement on Danas’s future track, and interestingly, they are generally in agreement on the unusual northeastward track through the Taiwan Strait. Steering currents are currently weak, owing to Danas’s position at the very end of the monsoon trough and the fact that ridging has not yet built back in to the northeast. Once the ridge does build in, Danas should begin accelerating to the northeast, passing through the Taiwan Strait on Sunday into Monday. Meanwhile, the environment appears conducive for strengthening, and Danas is expected to strengthen at a steady rate up until it passes through the strait. Given Danas’s current structure, rapid intensification is not out of the question, and Danas could become a typhoon as soon as late tonight or early on Sunday. 

By Monday, Danas’s circulation will become squeezed between the landmasses of China and Taiwan, and the shear is also expected to increase, which should cause a steady weakening trend. By Tuesday, cooler SSTs and very strong westerly shear will likely decapitate the system, causing it to make a hard left toward eastern China as it becomes steered by lower-level wind flow. Danas is expected to make landfall on Tuesday, and the circulation will likely spin down quickly as it pushes inland through the end of the forecast period.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

• 00 hrs: 20.3°N 117.4°E – 45 kts

• 12 hrs: 20.7°N 117.5°E – 60 kts

• 24 hrs: 21.8°N 118.2°E – 80 kts

• 48 hrs: 25.3°N 120.5°E – 75 kts

• 72 hrs: 27.9°N 121.0°E – 55 kts

• 96 hrs: 28.3°N 118.3°E – 35 kts inland

• 120 hrs: Dissipated