Tropical Depression Penha (02W / Basyang) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7: 1200 UTC 6 February 2026

Rapidly weakening Penha moving across Negros and Panay, expected to dissipate on Saturday...

Author

Will Weaver
February 06, 2026

…Rapidly weakening Penha moving across Negros and Panay… …Expected to dissipate on Saturday…

Himawari-9 infrared satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 10.1°N 122.8°E

  • Movement: WNW at 10 knots (20 km/h)

  • Intensity: 25 knots (45 km/h)

  • Central pressure: 1004 hPa

Trend:

  • Weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Penha will likely dissipate on Saturday.

Watches and warnings:

PAGASA wind signal map (click to enlarge)

  • TCWS #1 (Philippines): Southern Occidental Mindoro, southern Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Calamian Islands, Cuyo, northeastern Palawan, the entire island of Panay, Guimaras, southern Masbate, the entire island of Negros, Cagayancillo, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Cebu, Siquijor, Bohol, Biliran, southern Samar, southern Eastern Samar, the entire island of Leyte, Camiguin, western Dinagat Islands, northern Zamboanga del Norte, northern Misamis Occidental, far northern Misamis Oriental, northern Surigao del Norte

Areas that should monitor this system:

  • Philippines, particularly northern and central Mindanao, the Eastern and Central Visayas, and far northeastern Palawan. Penha made landfall in Mindanao around 1700 UTC.

Hazards affecting land:

  • Heavy rainfall will likely persist over portions of Mindanao and the Central Visayas and spread over northeastern Palawan early Saturday. Although Penha is likely to dissipate on Saturday, the rainfall threat will persist through Monday. Localized flooding is possible in low-lying areas. For additional information, refer to products from your local weather office.

Discussion:

Penha is currently moving across Negros and Panay, and its satellite presentation has degraded significantly during the past 12 hours. Most of the convection associated with Penha has become sheared off well to the northwest of the circulation center. Although scatterometer data suggests that the circulation is still closed, it has become very poorly defined and is difficult to discern on shortwave infrared satellite imagery due to its close proximity to the islands. What I can glean from the imagery is that the circulation is sharply elongated at the very least and potentially opening up into a trough at worst. Strong easterly shear of about 25 to 30 kts is also not doing the system any favors. There are no indications that Penha is producing any tropical storm force winds at this time, and available Dvorak estimates range from T1.5 to T2.0. The intensity is lowered to 25 kts based on a recent HYSAT scatterometer pass.

Satellite imagery indicates that a very strong northeasterly cold surge is about to encroach upon Penha’s circulation as a high pressure area builds southward from eastern China. This will result in an overwhelmingly hostile environment that no tropical cyclone can possibly survive in. Between the strong easterly shear and northeasterly surface flow, Penha’s circulation is expected to rapidly decay into a trough on Saturday, with some of the guidance (GFS, HAFS-A) suggesting that Penha could dissipate in less than 12 hours. The remnant moisture from Penha could pose a continued rainfall threat for parts of the Philippines through early next week before dry air chokes off the remaining convection.

Gale force winds unrelated to Penha could persist over portions of the Philippines through early next week due to the ongoing northeasterly cold surge, and storm force winds are possible within the offshore waters of northwestern Luzon. For additional information, refer to marine warnings issued by JMA and PAGASA.

Forecast positions and maximum winds (1-min)

  • 000 hrs: 10.1°N 122.8°E – 25 kts 45 km/h inland over Negros

  • 012 hrs: Dissipated