Tropical Depression (Invest 97W / Salome) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1: 1200 UTC 22 October 2025

Tropical depression east of Taiwan moving very slowly south-southwestward toward the Luzon Strait, expected to be short-lived...

Author

Will Weaver
October 22, 2025

…Tropical depression east of Taiwan moving very slowly south-southwestward toward the Luzon Strait… …Expected to be short-lived…

Himawari-8 infrared satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 22.0°N 122.9°E

  • Movement: SSW at 4 knots (5 km/h)

  • Intensity: 30 knots (55 km/h)

  • Central pressure: 1006 hPa

Trend:

  • Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Watches and warnings:

PAGASA wind signal map (click to enlarge)

  • TCWS #1 (Philippines): Batanes Islands, Calayan and Dalupiri in the Babuyan Islands, northwestern coastal Ilocos Norte

Hazards affecting land:

  • The depression could cause rough seas and heavy surf along coastal areas of the Batanes and Babuyan Islands, southeastern Taiwan, and coastal northwestern Luzon during the next day or two. Rainfall associated with this system will likely be negligible. For additional information, refer to products from your local weather office.

Discussion:

WSFM MWI 89GHz microwave satellite image

PAGASA has issued wind signals for portions of the Philippines in association with the minor tropical depression located off the eastern coast of Taiwan, so tropical cyclone advisories are being initiated. This system is expected to be fairly short-lived as it is located in about as hostile an environment as possible. The depression is currently embedded within a strong northeasterly cold surge, which is generating strong to extreme amounts of mid- to upper-level shear over the system. Adding to the unfavorable environment is the close proximity of Tropical Storm Fengshen’s large mid-level circulation and an upper-level anticyclone in the South China Sea associated with it. All of this has resulted in a system that consists of a poorly defined and sharply elongated circulation with deep convection well removed to the east of the center. Scatterometer data shows a large area of 35 to 40 kt winds in the area that are associated with the cold surge, but there are some 30 to 35 kt wind barbs close to the depression’s center which seem unrelated to the surge flow. Between that and consensus Dvorak fixes of T2.0, the intensity is set to 30 kts.

TD 97W is expected to be very short-lived owing to the extremely hostile environment it is located in. The shear is expected to persist as 97W moves generally southwestward during the next day or two within the cold surge flow. The PAGASA forecast shows 97W remaining a tropical depression through Thursday evening. Although PAGASA has a forecast point for Friday morning as a low-pressure area, the overwhelming majority of the model guidance decays 97W into a trough before then. 

Forecast positions and maximum winds

  • 000 hrs: 22.0°N 122.9°E – 30 kts

  • 012 hrs: 20.3°N 121.4°E – 30 kts

  • 024 hrs: 18.2°N 118.9°E – 25 kts

  • 048 hrs: Dissipated

Forecast map