Tropical Depression (Invest 96W / Ramil) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3: 1200 UTC 17 October 2025

Tropical depression could still become a tropical storm before reaching the Philippines...

Author

Will Weaver
October 17, 2025

…Tropical depression could still become a tropical storm before reaching the Philippines…

Himawari-8 infrared satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 13.2°N 128.7°E

  • Movement: W at 12 knots (25 km/h)

  • Intensity: 30 knots (55 km/h)

  • Central pressure: 1004 hPa

Trend:

  • Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours, but the depression could still become a tropical storm before it makes landfall.

Watches and warnings:

PAGASA wind signal map (click to enlarge)

  • TCWS #1 (Philippines): Eastern Mountain Province, Ifugao, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, eastern Pangasinan, Quirino, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, eastern Bulacan, Quezon (except for the far western portion), Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Burias Island, Albay, Sorsogon, Northern Samar, northern and northwestern Samar, northern Eastern Samar

Hazards affecting land:

  • The depression is likely to produce areas of heavy rainfall over portions of Luzon and the Central and Eastern Visayas beginning on Saturday afternoon and continuing through Sunday afternoon. Most of the rainfall will occur north of the center location, and storm total rainfall of 100 to 150 mm is possible through Sunday night. This rainfall could cause localized flooding. For additional information, refer to products from your local weather office.

Discussion:

WSFM MWI 37GHz microwave satellite image, showing the broad circulation and fragmented banding to the south and southeast of the center

The tropical depression located east of Catanduanes has not changed much in organization since the previous advisory. The depression consists of broad clusters of convection rotating around a broad and poorly defined circulation center, with the only discrete bands located south and southeast of the center. The system continues to experience the effects of moderate northwesterly mid-level shear. There are some indications based on low cloud motions on proxy-visible and shortwave infrared satellite imagery that the circulation center may be reforming to the southwest of the previous location, and so the current advisory location is a bit to the southwest of the previous 12-hour forecast point. The intensity remains 30 kts, based on consensus T2.0 Dvorak fixes and scatterometer data that indicated winds of 25 to 30 kts primarily to the east of the center. 

The current motion is still westward at 12 kts, and the only major change to the forecast was adjusting the forecast track a bit to the south of the previous one due to the likely center reformation. The new forecast track is closer to the ECMWF and Google DeepMind ensembles, as well as the deterministic ECMWF model run, and is south of the GFS ensemble which seems to overdo the weakening of the ridge to the northwest. The environment remains only marginally favorable, and little - if any - strengthening appears likely in the short term. On the current track, TD 96W will likely pass near or over Catanduanes on Saturday evening before turning northwestward as the ridge slightly weakens due to a trough digging in over the East China Sea. 96W should move inland over Aurora as a minimal tropical storm on Sunday before emerging back over water north of Pangasinan on Sunday evening. 

Once over the South China Sea, the environment should be more favorable with very warm SSTs and lower shear, and this should enable some gradual strengthening through the end of the forecast period. Most of the guidance turns 96W west-southwestward on Tuesday as it comes under the influence of strong northeasterly surface flow associated with a strong gap wind event coming off the Taiwan Strait. This northeasterly flow will likely cause 96W’s intensity to level off by the end of the period.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

  • 000 hrs: 13.2°N 128.7°E – 30 kts 

  • 012 hrs: 13.6°N 125.9°E – 30 kts

  • 024 hrs: 14.0°N 123.8°E – 35 kts

  • 048 hrs: 16.9°N 119.8°E – 35 kts

  • 072 hrs: 18.1°N 115.8°E – 45 kts

  • 096 hrs: 18.1°N 113.8°E – 55 kts

  • 120 hrs: 16.6°N 111.9°E – 55 kts

JMA forecast map