Tropical Depression (Invest 95W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1: 1200 UTC 10 March 2026

...Tropical depression forms north of Yap... ...Expected to be short-lived but could bring heavy rain to Guam and the Marianas later this week...

Author

Will Weaver
March 10, 2026

…Tropical depression forms north of Yap… …Expected to be short-lived but could bring heavy rain to Guam and the Marianas later this week…

Himawari-9 infrared satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 12.1°N 137.5°E

  • Movement: N at 5 knots (10 km/h)

  • Intensity: 30 knots (55 km/h)

  • Central pressure: 1002 hPa

Trend:

  • Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours, though the depression could potentially become a short-lived tropical storm on Wednesday.

Watches and warnings:

  • There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Areas that should monitor this system:

  • Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan - a tropical storm watch could be needed for some or all of these islands on Wednesday.

Hazards affecting land:

  • The depression will likely bring heavy rainfall and strong, gusty winds to Guam and portions of the CNMI beginning Wednesday night and continuing through Friday morning. Winds may gust as high as 50 mph, and rainfall amounts of up to 5 inches (125 mm) are possible. Secure any loose objects and use caution when traveling through low-lying areas.

Discussion:

Scatterometer data indicates that the area of low pressure located near Yap is now producing 25 to 30 kt winds and has a semblance of a circulation center. Although the convective structure of the system can best be described as “scrambled eggs”, consisting mainly of clusters of disorganized convection rather loosely rotating around the apparent circulation center, JMA has upgraded the system to warning status, and the system is now a 30 kt tropical depression. The circulation is also sharply elongated and may not be completely closed - in fact, PGTW updated a previous T2.0 Dvorak fix from around 1145 UTC not too long ago and changed their analysis to “position of low level circulation center cannot be found”. Other Dvorak fixes from KNES and RJTD range from T1.5 to T2.5, which supports the 30 kt intensity.

The 10th of March is typically described as the “anti-peak” of the Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season, as opposed to the peak that occurs around the 10th of September. Appropriately for the “anti-peak” of the season, environmental conditions are not very favorable for tropical cyclone development, and the depression will likely not be around for very long. CIMSS shear analysis already shows about 20 to 25 kts of southerly shear impacting the system, and this shear is expected to increase even more by Thursday as a developing cold front approaches from the west. While the shear is somewhat lower, the depression has an outside chance of becoming a tropical storm during the next 12 to 24 hours, but by Thursday, increasingly hostile conditions will likely strip the depression of its convection. The result should be a non-convective post-tropical remnant low by Thursday evening, with the low decaying into a trough shortly after.

Forecast positions and maximum winds (1-min)

  • 000 hrs: 12.1°N 137.5°E – 30 kts 55 km/h 

  • 012 hrs: 12.4°N 138.2°E – 35 kts 65 km/h 

  • 024 hrs: 12.5°N 138.8°E – 30 kts 55 km/h 

  • 048 hrs: 12.7°N 140.4°E – 25 kts 45 km/h Post-tropical/remnant low

  • 072 hrs: 13.0°N 142.5°E – 20 kts 35 km/h Post-tropical/remnant low

  • 096 hrs: Dissipated

Forecast map