Tropical Depression (Invest 93W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1: 1200 UTC 5 May 2026

New tropical depression forms well to the southeast of Guam.

Author

Will Weaver
May 05, 2026

…New tropical depression forms well to the southeast of Guam…

Himawari-9 infrared satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 8.4°N 148.8°E

  • Movement: W at 5 knots (10 km/h)

  • Intensity: 30 knots (55 km/h)

  • Central pressure: 1006 hPa

Trend:

  • Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm on Wednesday.

Watches and warnings:

  • There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Areas that should monitor this system:

  • Yap State

Hazards affecting land:

  • The depression could produce periods of heavy rain over the islands of Yap State on Friday and Saturday.

Discussion:

The low pressure area moving away from Chuuk really got its act together after the previous tropical weather outlook was posted. Multiple scatterometer passes indicate the system has developed a well defined circulation center, and some fragmented banding is wrapping into the center mainly from the east. This convection had briefly developed into a central overcast-like feature but this seems to have broken down due to low to moderate westerly shear and a relatively dry air mass. Still, the system is organized enough to earn consensus T2.0 Dvorak estimates from KNES, PGTW, and RJTD, and so the system is upgraded to a tropical depression with 30 kt winds.

The forecast for TD 93W has become a bit more straightforward during the past day or so as the models are coming into better agreement. Strong mid- to upper-level ridging to the north should force 93W along on a general west-northwestward track during the next 5 days, with a very slight dip to the south during the next 24 hours due to reorientation of the ridge. While the depression is currently in a somewhat favorable environment, which will allow some strengthening in the short term, it should gradually gain latitude as it passes south of Guam and enters the Philippine Sea. As it does, westerly shear is forecast to steadily increase while the air mass dries out. This should limit any strengthening, and by Friday the shear should become overwhelming; by Saturday, 93W will likely weaken back to a depression, and it will likely become a remnant low or dissipate outright by the end of the forecast period, well before it can reach the Philippines.

Forecast positions and maximum winds (1-min)

  • 000 hrs: 08.4°N 148.8°E – 30 kts 55 km/h

  • 012 hrs: 08.1°N 146.9°E – 35 kts 65 km/h

  • 024 hrs: 07.9°N 144.9°E – 35 kts 65 km/h

  • 048 hrs: 08.1°N 141.4°E – 40 kts 75 km/h

  • 072 hrs: 09.3°N 138.0°E – 40 kts 75 km/h

  • 096 hrs: 10.4°N 134.7°E – 30 kts 55 km/h

  • 120 hrs: 11.5°N 131.4°E – 25 kts 45 km/h POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW

Forecast map