Tropical Depression (Invest 92W / Verbena) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2: 1500 UTC 24 November 2025

Depression passing just south of Bohol with no change in strength. Heavy rainfall continues over the Visayas and northern Mindanao...

Author

Will Weaver
November 24, 2025

…Depression passing just south of Bohol with no change in strength… …Heavy rainfall continues over the Visayas and northern Mindanao…

Himawari-9 infrared satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 9.6°N 125.1°E

  • Movement: W at 20 knots (35 km/h)

  • Intensity: 30 knots (55 km/h)

  • Central pressure: 1002 hPa

Trend:

  • Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Watches and warnings:

PAGASA wind signal map (click to enlarge)

  • TCWS #1 (Philippines): Northern Palawan, Cuyo Islands, Calamian Islands, the entirety of Mindoro, Romblon, the entirety of Panay, Masbate, Samar, Eastern Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, the entirety of Negros, Cebu, Siquijor, Bohol, Camiguin, Dinagat Islands, northern Zamboanga del Norte northern Misamis Occidental, Misamis Oriental, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Sur

Hazards affecting land:

  • The depression is expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall over portions of Mindanao, the Visayas, and northern Palawan during the next couple of days. Rainfall totals of up to 250 mm are possible in some areas, and this could cause flooding of low-lying areas. For additional information, refer to products from your local weather office.

Discussion:

The tropical depression is showing signs of becoming better organized despite crossing over scattered landmasses in the eastern Visayas. Convection has increased substantially near the very compact circulation center, with fragmented bands extending well north and west of the center within a strong poleward outflow channel. The convective structure has also become less trough-like during the past several hours. The depression has a rather wide wind field, likely due to interaction with a decaying shear line well to the north, with a large swath of 25 to 30 kt winds extending well to the north and northeast. There are currently no indications that tropical storm force winds are occurring yet, and Dvorak estimates range from T1.5 to T2.0, so the intensity remains 30 kts.

The forecast is mostly unchanged from the previous one. TD 92W is embedded in strong easterly flow associated with a mid-level ridge centered east of Luzon, and it should move generally westward or west-northwestward during the next few days. The environment appears to be favorable for strengthening and most of the model guidance suggests that 92W should strengthen at a steady rate through Thursday, and 92W could approach typhoon intensity before increasing shear, cooler SSTs off the Vietnam coast, and weakening steering currents result in a gradual weakening trend. By the end of the forecast period, 92W will likely stall out off the eastern Vietnam coast and begin to weaken more rapidly.

Forecast positions and maximum winds (1-min)

  • 000 hrs: 09.6°N 125.1°E – 30 kts 55 km/h 

  • 012 hrs: 10.7°N 122.6°E – 30 kts 55 km/h

  • 024 hrs: 11.5°N 120.6°E – 35 kts 65 km/h 

  • 048 hrs: 12.8°N 117.2°E – 45 kts 85 km/h 

  • 072 hrs: 12.6°N 114.2°E – 60 kts 110 km/h 

  • 096 hrs: 12.2°N 112.4°E – 55 kts 100 km/h 

  • 120 hrs: 12.6°N 111.1°E – 45 kts 85 km/h 

JMA forecast map

One last thing… 

  • Do you like what you see? Please consider sending a tip via Ko-fi! I wear a lot of hats between a day job, being a photographer, and being a worldwide weather enthusiast, and while I will never put any of my content behind a paywall (paywalls kind of defeat the purpose of this blog/newsletter/thingy), your tips definitely help! You can send a tip via the following link: https://ko-fi.com/willweaverrva