Tropical Depression (Invest 92W / Verbena) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1: 0000 UTC 24 November 2025

Tropical depression forms east of Mindanao. Expected to mainly be a rainfall threat for the Philippines...

Author

Will Weaver
November 23, 2025

…Tropical depression forms east of Mindanao… …Expected to mainly be a rainfall threat for the Philippines…

Himawari-9 visible satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 9.5°N 128.2°E

  • Movement: W at 6 knots (10 km/h)

  • Intensity: 30 knots (65 km/h)

  • Central pressure: 1002 hPa

Trend:

  • Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours, although the depression could become a tropical storm as it crosses the Philippines.

Watches and warnings:

PAGASA wind signal map (click to enlarge)

  • TCWS #1 (Philippines): Northern Palawan, Cuyo Islands, southern Occidental Mindoro, southern Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Masbate, southern Samar, southern Eastern Samar, the entirety of Panay, Guimaras, the entirety of Negros, Cebu, Siquijor, Bohol, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Dinagat Islands, Camiguin, Surigao del Norte, Agusan del Norte, northern Surigao del Sur

Hazards affecting land:

  • The depression is expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall over portions of Mindanao, the Visayas, and northern Palawan during the next couple of days. Rainfall totals of up to 250 mm are possible in some areas, and this could cause flooding of low-lying areas. For additional information, refer to products from your local weather office.

Discussion:

The area of low pressure that has quickly been moving westward toward the Philippines has continued to consolidate during the past 24 hours, and satellite imagery indicates that the system’s circulation has become better defined, although it is quite small and difficult to resolve on scatterometer imagery. Convective banding is also wrapping into this small circulation center, although the system’s overall convective structure remains somewhat trough-like, with a linear line of thunderstorms stretching along the near-equatorial trough to the east. Scatterometer data suggests the system is producing 25 to 30 kt winds to the north and east of the center, so the system is now a tropical depression with 30 kt winds.

The depression’s tiny circulation makes the forecast difficult because it is likely that the circulation will undergo reformations, especially given the scattered landmasses in its path. This will likely preclude any significant strengthening even though the environment appears to be favorable with low to moderate shear and warm waters. As a result, little change in strength appears likely before the depression moves over the Dinagat Islands and Leyte during the next 12 hours or so. Most of the model guidance suggests that TD 92W will strengthen as it moves over the Bohol Sea on Tuesday, and it will likely become a tropical storm by that point. Some additional strengthening appears likely as 92W moves out over the South China Sea, and it will likely reach peak intensity by Thursday. By Friday, cooler SSTs and northeasterly cold surge flow will likely induce a weakening trend as well as a turn toward the southwest.

Forecast positions and maximum winds (1-min)

  • 000 hrs: 09.5°N 128.2°E – 30 kts 55 km/h 

  • 012 hrs: 10.2°N 125.8°E – 30 kts 55 km/h

  • 024 hrs: 11.3°N 123.6°E – 35 kts 65 km/h 

  • 048 hrs: 11.4°N 118.1°E – 45 kts 85 km/h 

  • 072 hrs: 11.8°N 114.3°E – 50 kts 95 km/h 

  • 096 hrs: 10.9°N 112.4°E – 50 kts 95 km/h 

  • 120 hrs: 10.2°N 111.0°E – 40 kts 75 km/h 

JMA forecast map

One last thing… 

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