Tropical Depression Hagupit (05W / Caloy) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9: 1200 UTC 9 May 2026

Hagupit weakens to a tropical depression and may be dissipating.

Author

Will Weaver
May 09, 2026

…Hagupit weakens to a tropical depression and may be dissipating…

Himawari-9 infrared satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 9.3°N 134.4°E

  • Movement: W at 11 knots (20 km/h)

  • Intensity: 30 knots (55 km/h)

  • Central pressure: 1004 hPa

Trend:

  • Weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours and Hagupit could dissipate at any time later tonight or tomorrow.

Watches and warnings:

  • No coastal watches or warnings are in effect.

Areas that should monitor this system:

  • None.

Hazards affecting land:

  • None.

Discussion:

Although a large area of convection persists in association with Hagupit, the tropical cyclone has lost quite a bit of organization since the previous advisory. The low-level circulation remains displaced well to the west of the convection, and is very poorly defined. In fact, scatterometer and SAR wind data suggest the circulation may no longer be closed, and none of the instruments detected winds of tropical storm force. There are also no indications that the center is reforming closer to the convection. I was tempted to declare Hagupit dissipated, but we’ll give it some more time and see what it looks like after sunrise. Although a combination of T2.0 to T2.5 Dvorak estimates and CIMSS ADT, AiDT, and D-PRINT estimates ranging from 30 to 41 kts would indicate tropical storm strength, current observations do not bear that out, and the intensity is lowered to 30 kts.

The shear is in the process of increasing dramatically and shifting from west to southwest, and the air mass is becoming much drier. Given that Hagupit’s circulation is already poorly defined, it will probably not survive for much longer. Most of the model guidance degenerates Hagupit into a remnant low within the next 24 hours and decays the circulation into a trough soon after. The forecast track has been nudged a bit south of the previous one, but dissipates Hagupit by the 48 hour mark.

Forecast positions and maximum winds (1-min)

  • 000 hrs: 09.3°N 134.4°E – 30 kts 55 km/h

  • 012 hrs: 09.7°N 132.9°E – 30 kts 55 km/h

  • 024 hrs: 10.2°N 131.4°E – 25 kts 45 km/h POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW

  • 048 hrs: DISSIPATED

JMA forecast map