Tropical Depression Chantal (03L) - Tropical Cyclone Update #4, 10 PM EDT 7/6/25

Chantal now located over central North Carolina, heavy rainfall expected to spread into southern central Virginia late tonight

Author

Will Weaver
July 06, 2025

…Chantal now located over central North Carolina… …Heavy rainfall expected to spread into southern central Virginia late tonight…

GOES-19 satellite image (CyclonicWx)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 35.6°N 79.0°W (25 mi SW of Raleigh, NC)

  • Movement: NE at 10 knots (10 mph)

  • Intensity: 25 knots (30 mph)

  • Central pressure: 1006 mb

Trend:

  • Chantal is forecast to weaken as it moves further inland, and it is expected to degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone over southeastern Virginia on Monday.

Watches and warnings:

  • Flood watches are in effect for much of central North Carolina and south central Virginia, generally from southwest of Raleigh to near Richmond.

Hazards affecting land:

Composite radar image (CyclonicWx) - most of the rainfall is located north and northwest of the center of circulation

  • Chantal (and its remnants) is expected to produce pockets of heavy rainfall across portions of central and eastern North Carolina and central and eastern Virginia through Monday night. Storm total rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches, is possible throughout the region. Any storms that develop could produce very high rainfall rates of up to 2 inches per hour, and this could cause flash flooding in low-lying areas.

Focus on Central Virginia:

Current flood watches and warnings for southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina, with flood watches in effect near Raleigh, South Hill, Farmville, and Richmond

  • The primary risk from Chantal in Central Virginia is pockets of heavy rain, especially on Monday. As Chantal weakens, its associated rainfall will become more scattered, but any thunderstorms that do develop will produce very heavy rain and gusty winds (wind gusts as high as 40 mph). Isolated tornadoes are also possible. The Weather Prediction Center indicates a slight (level 2) risk of excessive rainfall for most of southeastern Virginia, including the Richmond area, on Monday. Areas south of I-64 and west of I-95 will have the highest potential for heavy rainfall and flooding.

Weather Prediction Center excessive rainfall risk product - a slight risk is in effect for most of central Virginia and north central North Carolina, including South Hill, Farmville, and Richmond

  • Once Chantal’s remnants move out of the area, it will leave extremely humid tropical air behind it (dew points in the upper 70s), and very hot temperatures by midweek will cause heat index values to rise into the mid-100s. In addition, there will be chances of showers and thunderstorms pretty much every day this week, and any storms that develop could produce extremely heavy rainfall, which could also cause flash flooding concerns throughout central and eastern Virginia.