Tropical Depression (96W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1: 0000 UTC 16 July 2025

Large, sprawling low pressure area east of the Philippines becomes a tropical depression

Author

Will Weaver
July 15, 2025

…Large, sprawling low pressure area east of the Philippines becomes a tropical depression…

Image caption goes here (Source)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 14.1°N 131.8°E

  • Movement: NW at 5 knots (10 km/h)

  • Intensity: 30 knots (55 km/h)

  • Central pressure: 1004 hPa

Trend:

  • Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and the depression will likely become a tropical storm on Thursday.

Watches and warnings:

  • There are no land-based watches or warnings in effect.

Hazards affecting land:

  • Interests in Taiwan, the Batanes and Babuyan Islands, and northern mainland Luzon should monitor the progress of this system.

Discussion:

Himawari-9 visible satellite image (Weathernerds)

The enormous monsoonal area of low pressure located in the central Philippine Sea has continued to increase in organization since the tropical weather outlook was posted, with fragmented bands of convection increasing in coverage primarily to the south and west of a well-defined but broad circulation center. This circulation has remained quite evident on scatterometer imagery, with recent HYSAT and Oceansat-3 passes indicating the presence of a large swath of 25 to 30 kt winds mainly to the south of the center. Although the organization of the convection leaves a bit to be desired, the quick consolidation of the system has prompted JMA to classify it as a tropical depression with 30 kt winds.

Himawari-9 infrared satellite image (Weathernerds). This is going to take some time to organize, which will slow the intensification process

TD 96W is currently entering a much more favorable environment as it exits the strong upper-level trough that gave rise to Nari and 06W. With low shear and very warm SSTs ahead as 96W is steered west-northwestward by strong subtropical ridging to the northeast that will build westward, the only negative factor appears to be its sheer size. Large circulations take time to consolidate, and as a result they are not normally prone to rapid intensification. Therefore, the forecast currently calls for 96W to strengthen at a steady rate as it moves generally toward the west-northwest. TD 96W is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or tonight, and it could become a typhoon on Friday evening as it approaches the northeastern tip of Cagayan. Over the weekend, potential land interaction and somewhat stronger shear should cause 96W’s intensity to level off, but it is forecast to be a minimal typhoon through the end of the period.

It should be noted that there is a substantial amount of spread among the track guidance, with roughly 50% of the GFS and ECMWF model ensembles showing a track further northwest toward Taiwan rather than into the Luzon Strait as currently forecast. Obviously, a different track would have a substantial impact on the intensity forecast. Confidence in the forecast is low at this time and it is dependent on how strong the subtropical ridging becomes when the trough currently over the Marianas lifts out.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

  • 00 hrs: 14.1°N 131.8°E – 30 kts

  • 12 hrs: 14.3°N 129.8°E – 35 kts

  • 24 hrs: 14.6°N 127.7°E – 40 kts

  • 48 hrs: 47.5°N 170.5°E – 50 kts

  • 72 hrs: 52.5°N 173.2°W – 65 kts

  • 96 hrs: 57.5°N 178.5°W – 65 kts

  • 120 hrs: 56.3°N 171.5°W – 65 kts

JMA forecast map