Tropical Depression (96W/Crising) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4: 1500 UTC 17 July 2025

Tropical depression approaching northeastern Luzon and remains very poorly organized

Author

Will Weaver
July 17, 2025

…Tropical depression approaching northeastern Luzon and remains very poorly organized…

Himawari-9 infrared satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 15.6°N 126.1°E

  • Movement: WNW at 10 knots (20 km/h)

  • Intensity: 30 knots (55 km/h)

  • Central pressure: 999 hPa

Trend:

  • Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm before it makes landfall.

Watches and warnings:

  • TCWS #1 (Philippines): Batanes Islands, Babuyan Islands, Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, Catanduanes northeastern Camarines Sur, all of northern mainland Luzon north of a line extending from northern La Union to northern Aurora

PAGASA wind signal map (click to enlarge)

Hazards affecting land:

  • The depression is likely to produce widespread heavy rainfall across much of the Philippines during the next few days as it interacts with an active monsoon trough. The heaviest rainfall will likely occur along coastal regions of northern Luzon, Mindoro, and Panay. Storm total rainfall of up to 500 mm is possible in isolated coastal areas through Saturday; storm total rainfall of 150 to 200 mm is possible through Saturday in interior areas, including the Metro Manila area. This rainfall is likely to cause widespread flooding and mudslides in vulnerable areas. For additional information, including possible warnings, refer to products from your local weather office.

  • Interests in southern China, including Hong Kong and Macau, should monitor the progress of this system.

Discussion:

Himawari-9 infrared satellite image (Weathernerds)

The tropical depression east of the Philippines remains poorly organized, but it is showing some signs of getting its act together. Although the depression’s circulation remains very broad with a large area of calm winds near the center, its associated convection has increased in coverage, with some disorganized clusters of convection in all quadrants. The banding features remain somewhat fragmented. A recent HYSAT scatterometer pass indicated that the wind field remains quite broad, with a large swath of 25 to 30 kt winds south and east of the center. The intensity remains 30 kts based on this scatterometer data, although there are no Dvorak fixes available (PGTW and KNES both had “too weak” fixes).

Simulated 89 GHz microwave satellite image (RAMMB/RAMSDIS)

The forecast has changed quite a bit from the previous advisory, partially due to a relocation of the center to the north of previous estimates. The models have also backed off somewhat on 96W’s intensity forecast, and the depression is now forecast to strengthen very gradually during the next day or two as it approaches Cagayan and the Babuyan Islands. The forecast track no longer indicates landfall on northern mainland Luzon, but this still cannot be ruled out. As 96W traverses the northern South China Sea on Saturday evening and Sunday, it will have a brief opportunity for some steadier strengthening, and 96W will likely peak in intensity early on Monday before increasing shear and land interaction cause some weakening. The forecast calls for 96W to make a final landfall in northern Vietnam at the end of the forecast period.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

  • 00 hrs: 15.6°N 126.1°E – 30 kts 

  • 12 hrs: 17.2°N 124.7°E – 30 kts 

  • 24 hrs: 19.1°N 122.2°E – 35 kts 

  • 48 hrs: 20.2°N 117.8°E – 45 kts

  • 72 hrs: 21.0°N 113.2°E – 55 kts 

  • 96 hrs: 20.7°N 109.0°E – 50 kts 

  • 120 hrs: 21.1°N 106.7°E – 40 kts inland

JMA forecast map (click to enlarge)