Tropical Depression (96W/Crising) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3: 0000 UTC 17 July 2025

Tropical depression remains sprawling and poorly organized as it approaches the Philippines

Author

Will Weaver
July 16, 2025

…Tropical depression remains sprawling and poorly organized as it approaches the Philippines…

Himawari-9 visible satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 14.9°N 127.5°E

  • Movement: W at 9 knots (15 km/h)

  • Intensity: 30 knots (55 km/h)

  • Central pressure: 999 hPa

Trend:

  • Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and the depression will likely become a tropical storm later today.

Watches and warnings:

  • TCWS #1 (Philippines): Babuyan Islands, Cagayan, Apayao, Kalinga, Isabela, Quirino, eastern Mountain Province, eastern Ifugao, northeastern Nueva Vizcaya, northern Aurora

PAGASA tropical cyclone wind signal map (click to enlarge)

Hazards affecting land:

  • The depression is likely to produce widespread heavy rainfall across much of the Philippines during the next few days as it interacts with an active monsoon trough. The heaviest rainfall will likely occur along coastal regions of northern Luzon, Mindoro, and Panay. Storm total rainfall of up to 500 mm is possible in isolated coastal areas through Saturday; storm total rainfall of 150 to 200 mm is possible through Saturday in interior areas, including the Metro Manila area. This rainfall is likely to cause widespread flooding and mudslides in vulnerable areas. For additional information, including possible warnings, refer to products from your local weather office.

  • Interests in southern China, including Hong Kong and Macau, should monitor the progress of this system.

Discussion:

Himawari-9 visible satellite image (Weathernerds)

The tropical depression east of the Philippines has not gotten any better organized since the previous advisory, and there are indications it may actually have weakened. The depression continues to consist of a broad circulation with a large core of light winds, surrounded by fragmented bands of convection. Most of this convection is occurring to the south of the center as the depression’s circulation interacts with the monsoon trough. The system continues to experience some northwesterly shear, which has hampered its efforts to organize. A recent Oceansat-3 scatterometer pass indicated that the strongest winds associated with the depression are 20 to 25 knots, which are occurring in a broad belt extending from the northeastern quadrant to the southwestern quadrant. The scatterometer did not sample the northwestern quadrant, so it’s possible there could be stronger winds there. The intensity remains 30 kts, though it should be noted that the only Dvorak fixes are a T1.0 from KNES and a “too weak” from PGTW.

Himawari-9 infrared satellite image (Weathernerds)

There has been a southward shift in the forecast track, likely a direct result of its failure to intensify. The environment is expected to become more favorable during the next couple of days, and therefore, TD 96W is still forecast to strengthen. However, it probably will not become much more than a low-end tropical storm before the center moves over northeastern Cagayan on Friday evening, as its broad circulation will preclude rapid intensification (despite the HWRF model insisting on it). Since 96W will likely avoid the most mountainous terrain of northern Luzon, passage over land could actually help tighten the broad circulation, which will allow for steadier strengthening once it moves back over water on Saturday. 96W could become a typhoon by Sunday evening or Monday as it approaches southern China, at which point increasing shear will put an end to 96W’s intensification process and cause some weakening. Confidence in the forecast has increased somewhat, but remains uncomfortably low at this time.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

  • 00 hrs: 14.9°N 127.5°E – 30 kts 

  • 12 hrs: 16.0°N 125.8°E – 30 kts 

  • 24 hrs: 17.3°N 124.2°E – 35 kts 

  • 48 hrs: 19.0°N 119.7°E – 50 kts

  • 72 hrs: 20.1°N 115.4°E – 65 kts 

  • 96 hrs: 20.9°N 112.8°E – 70 kts 

  • 120 hrs: 20.9°N 110.4°E – 60 kts 

JMA forecast map