Tropical Depression (96W/Crising) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2: 1200 UTC 16 July 2025

…Enormous tropical depression crawling slowly west-northwestward…

Discussion:

The large tropical depression east of the Philippines has changed little in organization since the previous advisory. The system continues to consist of a sprawling area of convection organized in fragmented bands wrapping loosely into a rather broad circulation center. The convection has increased somewhat in coverage, with some clusters beginning to form within the northern and eastern semicircles. Scatterometer data from Oceansat-3 and HYSAT indicates that TD 96W has a rather broad wind field, which makes sense for a system with monsoonal origins. The intensity remains a potentially generous 30 kts – there are no Dvorak fixes available and the scatterometer data does not show any winds stronger than 25 kts. 

There are no changes to the forecast at this time. TD 96W is continuing to slowly move into a more favorable environment with lower shear (10-15 kts) and very warm SSTs, but its large size will likely preclude rapid intensification. Most of the model guidance suggests that TD 96W will continue moving generally west-northwestward as subtropical ridging to the north builds westward. There remains some spread among the model guidance as they differ on how strong the ridging will be, although the bulk of the guidance has shifted a bit to the south. The JMA forecast track has been nudged southward accordingly, and now indicates a track closer to the northern coast of Luzon. Confidence remains uncomfortably low in the track forecast.

The intensity forecast is highly dependent on 96W’s track. As I said in the previous paragraph, 96W’s sprawling size does not favor rapid intensification. The forecast instead calls for steady, but not rapid, intensification, with 96W likely not becoming a typhoon until it moves away from Luzon and into the South China Sea. 96W is forecast to reach peak intensity by Sunday, at which point increasing shear will likely begin a steady weakening trend as it approaches the southern coast of China. It should be noted that if 96W tracks further south than currently forecast, it will make landfall in northern Luzon, and as a result it will likely reach a lower peak intensity.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

• 00 hrs: 14.5°N 129.4°E – 30 kts 

• 12 hrs: 15.0°N 127.8°E – 35 kts 

• 24 hrs: 15.7°N 125.9°E – 45 kts 

• 48 hrs: 18.6°N 122.1°E – 55 kts on the coast

• 72 hrs: 19.4°N 118.3°E – 70 kts 

• 96 hrs: 20.6°N 115.1°E – 80 kts 

• 120 hrs: 21.1°N 112.3°E – 65 kts