Tropical Depression (95W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1: 1500 UTC 2 September 2025

…Tropical depression forms southeast of Okinawa…

Current storm information:

• Position: 22.2°N 133.5°E

• Movement: N at 14 knots (25 km/h)

• Intensity: 30 knots (55 km/h)

• Central pressure: 1006 hPa

Trend:

• Some slow strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm late tonight.

Discussion:

The area of low pressure located southeast of Okinawa is not particularly well organized, but HYSAT scatterometer data indicates it has formed a well-defined, yet elongated, surface circulation with winds of 25 to 30 kts located southeast of the center. In addition, its associated convection has begun to organize into discrete bands that are wrapping into the circulation center, although the system as a whole has a squished and not fully tropical appearance due to being located within an upper-level trough. Despite this squished appearance, the low has enough organization to be designated a tropical depression, and the initial intensity is set to 30 kts based on the scatterometer data.

With TD 95W embedded underneath the upper-level trough, there is more or less nowhere for it to go other than north. The depression is forecast to move generally northward during the next couple of days. The environment is marginally favorable for strengthening, with very warm SSTs offset by moderate shear and restricted outflow, and only some modest strengthening appears likely. TD 95W is forecast to become a tropical storm late tonight or on Thursday as it passes east of Amami Oshima, and it should make landfall in southern Kyushu later on Thursday. After landfall, most of the model guidance (GFS, ECMWF, and Google Deep Mind ensembles) suggests that 95W will become entangled within a frontal boundary as it turns sharply east-northeastward. Although 95W will be over land at this time, it will likely strengthen a bit more due to baroclinic influences as it undergoes extratropical transition, and 95W should exit into the northern Pacific as a rapidly strengthening post-tropical cyclone on Saturday.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

• 00 hrs: 22.2°N 133.5°E – 30 kts 

• 12 hrs: 25.1°N 131.8°E – 30 kts 

• 24 hrs: 28.3°N 130.4°E – 35 kts inland

• 48 hrs: 31.9°N 130.8°E – 40 kts 

• 72 hrs: 36.9°N 142.8°E – 45 kts 

• 96 hrs: 36.8°N 154.9°E – 50 kts Post-tropical/extratropical

• 120 hrs: 43.7°N 167.0°E – 50 kts Post-tropical/extratropical

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