Tropical Depression (95W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1: 0000 UTC 8 October 2025

…Tropical depression forms west of the Marianas…

Current storm information:

• Position: 17.7°N 138.4°E

• Movement: WNW at 20 knots (35 km/h)

• Intensity: 30 knots (55 km/h)

• Central pressure: 1006 hPa

Trend:

• Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and the depression will likely become a tropical storm on Thursday.

Discussion:

The area of low pressure in the far eastern Philippine Sea, which JMA has been monitoring as a minor tropical depression since yesterday, appears to have developed a fairly well defined circulation center. Given this and consensus Dvorak fixes of T2.0, the system is now a warning-level tropical depression. The system is experiencing the effects of strong northeasterly shear associated with Typhoon Halong, and most of the convection is displaced to the south and west of the center. The center itself is partially exposed just under the northeastern edge of the convection. The initial intensity is set to 30 kts based on the aforementioned Dvorak fixes.

TD 95W is embedded in strong southeasterly flow along the periphery of a ridge centered well to the northeast, and it is forecast to move generally northwestward during the next few days into the same weakness in the ridge that Halong is currently passing through. The environment will not be particularly favorable for strengthening as the strong northeasterly shear is forecast to persist, and none of the models show much, if any, intensification through Saturday. By Saturday, 95W is forecast to turn sharply east-northeastward south of Japan as it rounds the subtropical ridge and becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The environment should become slightly more favorable, and this will allow for some modest strengthening through the end of the forecast period.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

• 000 hrs: 17.7°N 138.4°E – 30 kts 

• 012 hrs: 20.7°N 138.1°E – 30 kts

• 024 hrs: 22.5°N 136.3°E – 35 kts

• 048 hrs: 25.5°N 133.4°E – 35 kts

• 072 hrs: 27.8°N 131.6°E – 40 kts

• 096 hrs: 30.3°N 134.3°E – 45 kts

• 120 hrs: 31.5°N 140.1°E – 50 kts