Tropical Depression 32W – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5: 1500 UTC 5 November 2025

Enormous Tropical Depression 32W producing areas of heavy rainfall in Yap State...

Author

Will Weaver
November 05, 2025

…Enormous Tropical Depression 32W producing areas of heavy rainfall in Yap State…

Replace this image with a current satellite image of the storm (Source)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 8.9°N 142.3°E

  • Movement: W at 7 knots (10 km/h)

  • Intensity: 30 knots (55 km/h)

  • Central pressure: 998 hPa

Trend:

  • Steady strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Watches and warnings:

  • Tropical storm warning (NWS): Fais and Ulithi in Yap State

  • Tropical storm watch (NWS): Faraulep in Yap State

Hazards affecting land:

  • Tropical Depression 32W could produce periods of heavy rain and rough surf within the islands of Yap State during the next day or two.

  • Interests in Luzon should closely monitor the progress of this system.

Discussion:

Despite being located in an almost exquisitely favorable environment, Tropical Depression 32W has not yet strengthened. This is likely a result of its very broad and sprawling nature - recent ASCAT and Oceansat scatterometer data indicates that 32W continues to have a very broad wind field with multiple swirls rotating around a common center. However, convection has continued to increase near the estimated center location with multiple bands rotating into the center. Dvorak estimates remain a consensus T2.0, and none of the scatterometer data indicates the presence of tropical storm force winds, so the intensity is held at 30 kts.

TD 32W remaining a very broad system has major implications for the forecast. A larger system is not quite as likely to rapidly intensify, and indeed RIPA and AI-RI have backed off on rapid intensification potentials for this system. RI is not exactly ruled out, but unless 32W consolidates more quickly than it currently is, it appears less likely to be extreme like the HAFS-A and Google DeepMind ensemble are depicting. Unfortunately, there remains high spread in the intensity guidance, so there is still low confidence in this forecast. 32W should strengthen rather quickly through Sunday morning as it moves west-northwestward across the Philippine Sea. There are indications that shear will increase as 32W approaches Luzon, which would cause some slow weakening. The current forecast track shows landfall near Casiguran on Monday followed by rapid weakening as 32W crosses Luzon, although again, due to low confidence in the forecast, this should not be taken as a definitive indication of where landfall will occur - if it does occur.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

  • 000 hrs: 8.9°N 142.3°E – 30 kts

  • 012 hrs: 9.6°N 141.6°E – 40 kts

  • 024 hrs: 10.8°N 140.2°E – 55 kts

  • 048 hrs: 12.1°N 136.4°E – 85 kts 

  • 072 hrs: 13.3°N 131.1°E – 120 kts 

  • 096 hrs: 15.0°N 125.0°E – 110 kts

  • 120 hrs: 17.0°N 119.0°E – 65 kts

JTWC forecast map