Tropical Depression 32W – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4: 0000 UTC 5 November 2025

…Tropical Depression 32W still consolidating well to the south of Guam… …Tropical storm warning issued for portions of Yap State…

Current storm information:

• Position: 7.8°N 143.0°E

• Movement: Nearly stationary

• Intensity: 30 knots (55 km/h)

• Central pressure: 998 hPa

Trend:

• Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Discussion:

Tropical Depression 32W is continuing to move rather erratically as it attempts to consolidate, and it really hasn’t gotten much better organized. The system has not really changed much in organization since the previous advisory, consisting of a broad area of convective bands rotating around a still somewhat broad surface circulation consisting of multiple low cloud swirls. A more concentrated area of convection has developed near the estimated center location, and it remains to be seen if this area of convection helps the circulation center become better defined. Dvorak estimates remain a consensus T2.0 while automated ADT, AiDT, and D-PRINT estimates range from 25 to 34 kts - the intensity is held at 30 kts for now.

There are no major changes to the forecast at this time. Although TD 32W is taking its time organizing, it is located in a very favorable environment of low shear and very warm SSTs. Although some of the ensemble model members have backed off a bit on strengthening, the overwhelming majority of the guidance continues to indicate rapid to explosive intensification during the next several days. A number of GFS, ECMWF, and GDM ensemble members as well as the HAFS-A model continue to deepen 32W below 910 hPa and bring it near or to Category 5 intensity by Sunday. The current forecast calls for 32W to approach Category 5 strength by that point before increasing shear near Luzon causes some slight weakening. The wind values given below are higher than in the JTWC forecast, and rapid intensification parameters remain quite high.

It needs to be stressed that this is still a low-confidence forecast because there is a great deal of spread among the track guidance. Even though the 120-hour forecast point is inland, this should not be taken as a guarantee that this is where landfall will occur (if it occurs), and the forecast track is still subject to major changes during the next couple of days.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

• 000 hrs: 7.8°N 143.0°E – 30 kts

• 012 hrs: 9.2°N 142.9°E – 40 kts

• 024 hrs: 10.1°N 142.1°E – 55 kts

• 048 hrs: 12.1°N 139.1°E – 90 kts 

• 072 hrs: 12.9°N 134.6°E – 115 kts 

• 096 hrs: 14.3°N 128.2°E – 135 kts

• 120 hrs: 16.3°N 121.9°E – 120 kts inland