Tropical Depression 32W (formerly 90W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3: 1500 UTC 4 November 2025

…Tropical Depression 32W forecast to intensify significantly during the next few days…

Current storm information:

• Position: 8.2°N 144.1°E

• Movement: Nearly stationary

• Intensity: 30 knots (55 km/h)

• Central pressure: 1002 hPa

Trend:

• Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Discussion:

The tropical depression south of Guam, now Tropical Depression 32W, is currently in the process of reforming its surface circulation center, and the current estimated center location is further to the southwest of the previous one. Convection has begun flaring around this relocated center, with large and sprawling convective bands wrapping into it from the south and east. The new center is almost in the very middle of an upper-level anticyclone situated over it, and the depression’s outflow has become much more impressive in recent hours. This increase in organization has led to increasing Dvorak estimates, a consensus T2.0, although there are not any indications the depression is producing tropical storm force winds yet. The intensity is held at 30 kts for now.

TD 32W’s center reformation has led to major shifts in the available model guidance. The overwhelming majority of the guidance has shifted to the south and west, and more GFS and ECMWF ensemble members track the system west-northwestward without any recurvature. Google DeepMind (GDM) has also continued to suggest a general west-northwestward track without recurvature. A track to the south also puts 32W in a more favorable environment, and in fact, most of the guidance brings 32W to Category 5 status by the end of the forecast period, with HAFS-A being a strong outlier peaking 32W at 170 kts and 870 hPa at 111 hours. I would not normally put much stock in such an extreme solution, but unfortunately a good number of GDM, GFS, and ECMWF ensemble members deepen 32W below 910 hPa, and CIMSS AI-RI and RAMMB RIPA rapid intensification parameters indicate very high probabilities of the most extreme levels of RI (62.8% chance of a 70 kt increase in 48 hours). Unfortunately, this requires an aggressive but low-confidence forecast, and the wind values below are much higher than the JMA and JTWC intensities. 32W will likely become a typhoon by Thursday, and it could be very close to Category 5 strength by the end of the period. There are hints that the shear could increase shortly after the forecast period ends, which would put a cap on 32W’s intensity.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

• 000 hrs: 8.2°N 144.1°E – 30 kts

• 012 hrs: 8.7°N 141.4°E – 40 kts

• 024 hrs: 9.6°N 141.0°E – 55 kts

• 048 hrs: 11.9°N 139.1°E – 85 kts 

• 072 hrs: 13.5°N 136.4°E – 110 kts 

• 096 hrs: 14.6°N 132.4°E – 125 kts

• 120 hrs: 16.1°N 126.8°E – 135 kts