Tropical Depression 10W (Dante) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1: 1200 UTC 22 July 2025

Tropical depression forms southeast of Okinawa, expected to contribute to an already dangerous rainfall situation in Luzon during the next few days

Author

Will Weaver
July 22, 2025

…Tropical depression forms southeast of Okinawa… …Expected to contribute to an already dangerous rainfall situation in Luzon during the next few days…

Himawari-9 infrared satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 19.0°N 132.2°E

  • Movement: WNW at 9 knots (15 km/h)

  • Intensity: 30 knots (55 km/h)

  • Central pressure: 1003 hPa

Trend:

  • Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm on Wednesday.

Watches and warnings:

  • There are no land-based watches or warnings in effect.

Hazards affecting land:

  • Interests in the Yaeyama and Ryukyu Islands, including Okinawa, should monitor the progress of this system.

  • Tropical Depression 10W, combined with a large monsoon gyre developing to the northeast of the Philippines, is expected to contribute to very heavy monsoonal rainfall across much of Luzon and portions of Mindoro and Panay during the next several days. Over 200 mm of rain has already fallen in some areas. Additional rainfall of up to 500 mm is possible through Saturday, particularly along western coastal regions of Luzon, including the Metro Manila area. This rainfall is likely to contribute to widespread, life-threatening flooding. This is a particularly dangerous situation. For additional information on the monsoonal rainfall threat, refer to Weather Advisories and Severe Weather Bulletins issued by PAGASA or other products from your local weather office.

  • Additional information for U.S. military interests on Okinawa can be found at the Stars & Stripes Pacific Storm Tracker: https://www.stripes.com/theaters/asia_pacific/storm_tracker/

Discussion:

Himawari-9 infrared satellite image (Weathernerds)

The monsoonal low pressure area over the central Philippine Sea (invest 97W) quickly became better organized since yesterday’s tropical weather outlook, despite experiencing some shear from an upper-level trough positioned over the East China Sea. Clusters of convection have developed around the system’s circulation center, although there is not yet much in the way of banding. Scatterometer data indicates the circulation is still somewhat elongated from west to east, and the strongest winds are occurring within the eastern semicircle along an extension of the monsoon trough. The current intensity of 30 kts is based on Dvorak fixes of T1.5 to T2.0 from PGTW, KNES, and RJTD, as well as a CIMSS ADT estimate of 31 kts. CIMSS D-PRINT is estimating an unrealistic 55 kts, but the scatterometer data does not support such a high intensity.

The forecast for TD 10W is rather difficult because it is located within a very complicated synoptic setup. SSTs are quite warm (30-31°C), but the monsoonal nature of the system combined with the shear from the trough will likely offset the warm waters and result in a slower rate of intensification. Global (GFS/ECMWF) and dynamical (HWRF/HAFS) model guidance therefore does not show much intensification as 10W moves in a generally northwestward direction. Despite the marginal environment, CIMSS AI-RI and RAMMB RIPA rapid intensification guidance are showing higher than normal probabilities of rapid intensification, with RIPA showing a 33.8% chance of an increase of 45 kts in the next 36 hours. The forecast leans more toward the model guidance and calls for a gradual intensification during the next couple of days. By Friday, most of the guidance shows 10W’s circulation becoming stretched out and decaying into a trough as it becomes incorporated into a monsoon gyre. Therefore, the forecast shows dissipation after 72 hours. It should be noted that confidence in this forecast is low, and if the rapid intensification scenario were to somehow occur, 10W might survive longer as a tropical cyclone. 

Forecast positions and maximum winds

  • 00 hrs: 18.2°N 131.8°E – 30 kts

  • 12 hrs: 19.6°N 130.2°E – 40 kts

  • 24 hrs: 21.9°N 128.4°E – 45 kts

  • 48 hrs: 24.0°N 125.2°E – 45 kts

  • 72 hrs: 26.5°N 122.5°E – 40 kts

  • 96 hrs: Dissipated

JMA forecast map