Tropical Depression 03W - Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2, 0000 UTC 6/26/25

…Tiny Tropical Depression 03W expected to move over the Leizhou Peninsula today…

Current storm information:

• Position: 20.1°N 110.7°E

• Movement: NW at 10 knots (15 km/h)

• Intensity: 25 knots (45 km/h)

• Central pressure: 1003 hPa

Trend:

• Little change in strength is forecast before TD 03W makes landfall.

Watches and warnings:

• The No. 1 standby signal is in effect for Macau and Hong Kong.

Hazards affecting land:

• The depression is likely to produce areas of heavy rainfall over portions of southern China, including eastern Hainan Island and the Leizhou Peninsula, through Friday. This rainfall could cause substantial flooding. For further information, refer to products from your local weather office.

Discussion:

Tropical Depression 03W has gotten a little bit better organized since the previous advisory, but it continues to exhibit the effects of 15-20 kts of east-northeasterly shear. Convection has formed up into a spiral band extending to the north and west of the center, and this band is well defined on local radar imagery, but the circulation center remains exposed on the eastern edge of the cold overcast. Although Dvorak and automated estimates have increased and range from T2.0 to T2.5, surface observations and scatterometer data do not support an intensity any higher than 25 kts, and that remains the current intensity.

TD 03W should move over the Leizhou Peninsula during the next few hours. Although the forecast track has 03W briefly emerging over the Gulf of Tonkin tonight, this will likely not have any impact on the intensity forecast. Little change in strength is expected before 03W moves inland over southern China late tonight. The depression’s tiny circulation should rapidly dissipate inland on Friday.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

• 00 hrs: 20.1°N 110.7°E – 25 kts 

• 12 hrs: 21.4°N 109.5°E – 25 kts on the coast

• 24 hrs: 23.0°N 108.5°E – 20 kts Post-tropical/remnant low inland

• 48 hrs: Dissipated