Tropical Depression 03W - Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1, 1200 UTC 6/25/25

…Tropical Depression 03W forms east of Hainan Island… …Not expected to strengthen…

Current storm information:

• Position: 19.2°N 112.2°E

• Movement: NW at 15 knots (25 km/h)

• Intensity: 25 knots (45 km/h)

• Central pressure: 1002 hPa

Trend:

• Little change in strength is forecast before TD 03W makes landfall.

Watches and warnings:

• The No. 1 standby signal is in effect for Macau and Hong Kong.

Hazards affecting land:

• The depression is likely to produce areas of heavy rainfall over portions of southern China, including eastern Hainan Island and the Leizhou Peninsula, between Thursday and Friday. This rainfall could cause substantial flooding. For further information, refer to products from your local weather office.

Discussion:

The monsoonal low pressure area in the South China Sea, previously invest 96W, has developed a well enough defined surface circulation to be upgraded to a tropical depression, and both JMA and JTWC have done so - the system is now Tropical Depression 03W. The depression is not particularly well organized, consisting of a small central overcast displaced to the west of the circulation center, and not much in the way of convective structure or banding. The system is experiencing moderate (15-20 kt) easterly shear associated with a deep-layer ridge positioned to the northwest, which is hampering its efforts to organize. The current intensity of 25 kts is based on T1.5 to T2.0 Dvorak fixes and a blend of CIMSS ADT and D-PRINT estimates (27 and 24 kts respectively).

TD 03W is expected to be another short-lived system. The environment is forecast to remain fairly hostile with moderate shear, which will offset fairly warm SSTs and preclude any significant strengthening. 03W should gradually turn toward the north-northwest as the ridge to the north breaks down ahead of an approaching upper-level trough, and it is forecast to make landfall on the Leizhou Peninsula on Thursday. After landfall, the depression’s circulation should decay fairly rapidly over land, and dissipation is expected by Friday morning.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

• 00 hrs: 19.2°N 112.2°E – 25 kts 

• 12 hrs: 19.9°N 111.2°E – 25 kts

• 24 hrs: 21.0°N 110.3°E – 25 kts inland

• 48 hrs: 22.7°N 109.8°E – 20 kts Post-tropical/remnant low

• 72 hrs: Dissipated