Tropical Depression 02W - Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1, 1200 UTC 6/22/25

…Tropical Depression 02W forms northeast of the Northern Mariana Islands… …Expected to be short-lived…

Current storm information:

• Position: 23.3°N 145.8°E

• Movement: NNW at 7 knots (10 km/h)

• Intensity: 30 knots (55 km/h)

• Central pressure: 1006 hPa

Trend:

• Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm on Monday.

Watches and warnings:

• No land-based watches or warnings are in effect.

Hazards affecting land:

• None.

Discussion:

The low pressure area in the subtropical Pacific near the northernmost Marianas has developed a fairly well defined surface circulation, and scatterometer data indicates that it has a rather broad swath of 25 to 30 kt winds primarily to the south and east of the center. Given these developments, this system is now a warning-criteria tropical depression and has been designated Tropical Depression 02W by JTWC. The depression does not resemble a classic tropical system, as much of the convection is sheared to the south and east of the center. It is interacting with a large TUTT cell positioned to its west, and cyclone phase diagrams suggest its warm core is shallow, so 02W is closer to a subtropical system than a tropical one. The initial intensity is 30 kts based on the scatterometer data.

TD 02W does not have a long life ahead of it. The environment is not particularly conducive for strengthening, with moderate to strong shear and marginal oceanic heat content, and these conditions will persist as 02W moves generally north-northwestward between the TUTT cell and a strong subtropical ridge to the northeast. Some strengthening is possible as 02W moves into a slightly more favorable position northeast of the TUTT cell, and 02W could become a tropical storm by tomorrow and reach peak intensity on Tuesday. By Tuesday evening, 02W will move over colder waters and into a belt of strong westerlies off the coast of Japan, and this should cause rapid weakening. 02W will likely degenerate into a remnant low as it passes close to Honshu on Wednesday before dissipating on Wednesday evening.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

• 00 hrs: 23.3°N 145.8°E – 30 kts

• 12 hrs: 25.0°N 144.3°E – 35 kts

• 24 hrs: 27.1°N 142.6°E – 40 kts

• 48 hrs: 30.7°N 140.1°E – 40 kts

• 72 hrs: 33.7°N 139.6°E – 30 kts Post-tropical/remnant low

• 96 hrs: Dissipated