Super Typhoon Ragasa (24W/Nando) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11: 1200 UTC 22 September 2025

Extremely dangerous Super Typhoon Ragasa continuing to produce life-threatening conditions on the Babuyan Islands and along coastal northern Luzon. This is a particularly dangerous situation!

Author

Will Weaver
September 22, 2025

…Extremely dangerous Super Typhoon Ragasa continuing to produce life-threatening conditions on the Babuyan Islands and along coastal northern Luzon… …This is a particularly dangerous situation…

Himawari-9 infrared satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 19.5°N 120.5°E

  • Movement: W at 11 knots (25 km/h)

  • Intensity: 130 knots (240 km/h) [Category 4] 

  • Central pressure: 910 hPa

Trend:

  • Fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 24 hours.

Watches and warnings:

PAGASA wind signal map (click to enlarge)

  • No. 3 Storm Signal (HKO/SMG): Hong Kong and Macau will be placed under the No. 3 Storm Signal during the next few hours.

  • Typhoon warning (Taiwan): Kaohsiung City, Pingtung County, Taitung County

  • TCWS #4 (Philippines): Babuyan Islands, northern coastal Ilocos Norte, northwestern Cagayan

  • TCWS #3 (Philippines): Batanes Islands, the rest of Ilocos Norte, northern and central Apayao, northern and central Cagayan

  • TCWS #2 (Philippines): Ilocos Sur, Abra, southern Apayao, Kalinga, northern Isabela, northern La Union, Mountain Province, northern Benguet, Ifugao

  • TCWS #1 (Philippines): The remainder of northern Luzon from Manila Bay northward

Hazards affecting land:

  • Extremely dangerous and life-threatening conditions - destructive winds and heavy rain - are continuing to occur in the Babuyan Islands and along the northwestern coast of mainland Luzon. In addition, extremely heavy rainfall is occurring in portions of southern Taiwan. These conditions are expected to persist for the next several hours. Rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides, especially in mountainous areas of Taiwan. Additional rainfall of up to 200 mm is possible along the northern and western coasts of Luzon, with higher amounts possible in southern Taiwan. Calayan recently reported sustained winds of 100 kts with gusts to 130 kts.

  • Monsoonal rainfall enhanced by Ragasa’s outflow could produce areas of heavy rainfall over portions of Luzon through Tuesday. Storm total rainfall of up to 200 mm is possible through Tuesday evening.

  • Typhoon conditions are becoming more likely for southern China, including Hong Kong and Macau, on Wednesday. Heavy rain and destructive winds are possible, and winds will be much stronger at higher elevations, such as in high-rise buildings. Preparations to protect life and property should be underway.

Discussion:

GPM GMI 37GHz microwave satellite image, indicating the presence of a stronger outer eyewall surrounding the inner eyewall

Ragasa is moving out of the Luzon Strait, and it is clearly past its peak intensity. Cloud tops within the central dense overcast have warmed quite a bit during the past several hours, although the eye remains very large, well-defined, and quite warm with multiple mesovortices present and discernible even on infrared satellite imagery. Microwave satellite imagery suggests that Ragasa continues to have a concentric eyewall structure with some drier air entrained within the circulation, which means another eyewall replacement cycle may be imminent. Ragasa continues to sport excellent radial outflow in all quadrants, and there are no signs that interaction with land has disrupted the structure much, if at all. Still, the warming cloud tops in the CDO suggest some weakening, and Dvorak estimates range from T6.5 to T7.0 with CIMSS ADT, D-PRINT, D-MINT, and SATCON estimates ranging from 123 to 137 kts. Taking a blend of these data yields an intensity of 130 kts.

There are no major changes to the forecast, as the models are in strong agreement that Ragasa will continue on a general west to west-northwest track during the next day or two. During the next 12 to 24 hours, Ragasa’s intensity will continue to be governed by inner core dynamics and potential eyewall replacement cycles, and fluctuations in intensity are possible during that time. Late on Tuesday, however, increasing shear and decreasing oceanic heat content are expected to cause a gradual weakening trend. Despite this weakening, Ragasa is expected to remain a very intense and extremely dangerous typhoon as it passes very close to the southern coast of China and Hong Kong and Macau on Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon, the large circulation of Ragasa will begin to experience some land interaction, which will result in more rapid weakening. The HWRF and HAFS-A models, and some of the GFS and ECMWF ensemble members even suggest that Ragasa could make landfall in southern China on Wednesday night or Thursday. Given these model projections, the forecast track in the late portion of the forecast has been shifted northward from the previous one. Ragasa is forecast to pass over the Leizhou Peninsula on Thursday and weaken to a tropical depression over northern Vietnam on Friday.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

  • 00 hrs: 19.5°N 120.5°E – 130 kts

  • 12 hrs: 19.9°N 118.5°E – 125 kts

  • 24 hrs: 20.7°N 116.3°E – 115 kts

  • 48 hrs: 21.5°N 111.6°E – 85 kts inland

  • 72 hrs: 21.4°N 105.8°E – 35 kts inland

  • 96 hrs: 21.2°N 100.5°E – 25 kts inland

  • 120 hrs: Dissipated

JMA forecast map