Subtropical Depression 07W – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3: 1500 UTC 13 July 2025

…Subtropical depression poorly organized and likely to dissipate later today…

Current storm information:

• Position: 31.1°N 127.8°E

• Movement: ENE at 15 knots (25 km/h)

• Intensity: 25 knots (45 km/h)

• Central pressure: 997 hPa

Trend:

• The subtropical depression is expected to weaken and dissipate over Kyushu during the next 24 hours.

Watches and warnings:

• USAG Daegu Area IV is under TCCOR 3.

Hazards affecting land:

• The subtropical depression is likely to bring heavy rain and gusty winds to portions of Kyushu and South Korea, including Jeju Island. For additional information and possible warnings, refer to products from your local weather office.

• Additional information for U.S. military interests can be found at the Stars & Stripes Pacific Storm Tracker: https://www.stripes.com/theaters/asia_pacific/storm_tracker/

Discussion:

The subtropical depression has rapidly become less organized since the previous advisory. The low-level circulation has become completely exposed with most of the convection sheared well to the northeast under the influence of 25 to 30 kts of southwesterly shear. The circulation itself has become somewhat diffuse and poorly defined with multiple swirls present. SubTD 07W is not classifiable with the Dvorak technique, and scatterometer data suggests the system has weakened, so the intensity is lowered to 25 kts.

SubTD 07W is tracking further south than previously forecast and the forecast track has been shifted significantly southward accordingly. 07W is now forecast to make landfall in Kyushu later today. The already diffuse circulation will likely not last long over Kyushu’s rough terrain, and it is now forecast to dissipate over northern Kyushu or far western Honshu late tonight or early on Tuesday. The remnants of 07W should quickly become absorbed by a new extratropical low over the Korean Peninsula soon after.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

• 00 hrs: 31.1°N 127.8°E – 25 kts Subtropical depression

• 12 hrs: 32.4°N 130.5°E – 25 kts Subtropical depression inland

• 24 hrs: Dissipated