Severe Tropical Storm Wutip (01W) - Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7, 1200 UTC 6/13/25

…Wutip remains just below typhoon intensity as it skirts the western coast of Hainan Island…

Current storm information:

• Position: 19.0°N 108.0°E

• Movement: Nearly stationary

• Intensity: 60 knots (110 km/h)

• Central pressure: 980 hPa

Trend:

• Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours, although Wutip could still become a typhoon later tonight or early on Saturday.

Watches and warnings:

• The No. 3 storm signal is active for Macau for the possibility of near-gale winds.

• The No. 1 standby signal is active for Hong Kong.

Hazards affecting land:

• Heavy rainfall over Vietnam and Laos should gradually subside during the next 12 to 24 hours. Meanwhile, heavy rain and destructive winds are possible over portions of western Hainan Island and southern China, including the Leizhou Peninsula, on Saturday. These conditions will likely affect Macau and Hong Kong by Saturday evening or Sunday. Since Wutip will be relatively slow-moving, this rainfall is likely to cause widespread severe flooding. For further information, including possible warnings, refer to products from your local weather office.

Discussion:

Wutip has taken on a somewhat ragged appearance, likely due to the influences of land interaction and nearby dry air. The central dense overcast feature that had formed before the previous advisory has become fragmented, although the inner core remains mostly intact with a small eye feature still present on both radar and satellite imagery. Interestingly, this imagery also shows the presence of some smaller swirls in the northern and western semicircles. Although Dvorak fixes from PGTW, KNES, and RJTD are a consensus T4.0, the Dvorak technique can sometimes be unrepresentative in systems that are close to land, and given the slight loss of organization since the previous advisory, the intensity is held at 60 kts, which is also in line with a recent CIMSS D-PRINT estimate.

Wutip has slowed to a crawl and is more or less wobbling in place, although the most recent radar imagery suggests that the tropical storm has nudged somewhat to the east during the last hour or so. Steering currents remain quite weak, but pressure observations from the Philippines and Taiwan suggest that the ridge is finally building westward. This should cause Wutip to finally begin moving northeastward later tonight. Wutip still has an opportunity to become a typhoon as it passes over the Gulf of Tonkin, although close proximity to land and dry air will remain the primary inhibiting factors. Wutip should make landfall near the Leizhou Peninsula late Saturday night or early on Sunday. After landfall, most of the model guidance shows Wutip rapidly opening up into a trough and becoming incorporated into a frontal system before getting very far, and it is likely that Wutip will be very close to dissipation by the 48 hour forecast point in this forecast. 

Forecast positions and maximum winds

• 00 hrs: 19.0°N 108.0°E - 60 kts

• 12 hrs: 20.5°N 109.0°E - 65 kts

• 24 hrs: 22.1°N 110.1°E - 45 kts inland

• 48 hrs: 25.9°N 114.7°E - 30 kts Post-tropical/extratropical

• 72 hrs: Dissipated