Severe Tropical Storm Wutip (01W) - Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7, 0000 UTC 6/13/25

…Wutip appears to be bypassing Hainan Island and is strengthening at a quick pace… …Likely to become a typhoon later today…

Current storm information:

• Position: 18.3°N 108.4°E

• Movement: NNW at 9 knots (15 km/h)

• Intensity [1-min]: 60 knots (110 km/h)

• Intensity [10-min]: 55 knots (100 km/h)

• Central pressure: 979 hPa

Trend:

• Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours and Wutip could become a typhoon this evening or tonight.

Watches and warnings:

• The No. 3 storm signal is active for Macau for the possibility of near-gale winds.

• The No. 1 standby signal is active for Hong Kong.

Hazards affecting land:

• Wutip is currently producing torrential rainfall over portions of central Vietnam and southern Laos. This rainfall will spread over northern Vietnam, Hainan Island, and southern China during the 12 to 24 hours, before shifting to southeastern China, Macau, and Hong Kong beginning on Saturday. Since Wutip will be relatively slow-moving, this rainfall is likely to cause widespread severe flooding. For further information, including possible warnings, refer to products from your local weather office.

Discussion:

Wutip continues to slowly ride the bus near Hainan Island, but radar data indicates that it missed the Hainan Island stop. The storm is also benefiting from a decrease in shear, which has caused it to rapidly become better organized. The aforementioned radar data (courtesy of CyclonicWx and apolitical) indicates that Wutip has developed a well defined inner core with what appears to be the dreaded pinhole eye. This eye feature is intermittently apparent on satellite imagery, with convective hot towers flaring around it. The only obvious negative factor affecting Wutip appears to be continental dry air from the interior of China, which is hampering convective development north of the center. The intensity has been increased to 60 kts, based on Dvorak fixes of T3.5 to T4.0 from KNES, RJTD, and PGTW and CIMSS ADT and D-PRINT estimates of 57 kts.

Based on an extrapolation of the radar data, it appears that landfall on Hainan isn’t going to happen. Instead, Wutip is likely to skirt the western coast of the island and gradually accelerate as southwesterly steering flow becomes established. Since Wutip’s center will remain over water, it is likely to strengthen, and it is very likely to become a typhoon sometime today. The only things limiting the chances of outright rapid intensification are the dry air to the north, and Wutip’s proximity to land. Wutip will not be able to avoid land forever, however, and it will make landfall on the western Leizhou Peninsula on Saturday evening. After landfall, Wutip should quickly become entangled within a frontal system and become a post-tropical cyclone as it races across southeastern China. Most of the model guidance shows post-tropical Wutip opening up into a trough as it emerges over the East China Sea on Monday.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

• 00 hrs: 18.3°N 108.4°E - 60 kts

• 12 hrs: 19.3°N 108.6°E - 70 kts on the Hainan coast

• 24 hrs: 20.5°N 109.0°E - 70 kts 

• 48 hrs: 24.1°N 111.7°E - 50 kts inland

• 72 hrs: 29.8°N 122.1°E - 35 kts Post-tropical/extratropical

• 96 hrs: Dissipated