Severe Tropical Storm Wipha (09W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10: 1500 UTC 20 July 2025

Wipha makes landfall in southern China, forecast to skirt the coast for the next day or so

Author

Will Weaver
July 20, 2025

…Wipha makes landfall in southern China… …Forecast to skirt the coast for the next day or so…

Himawari-9 infrared satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 21.7°N 111.7°E

  • Movement: W at 11 knots (20 km/h)

  • Intensity: 60 knots (110 km/h)

  • Central pressure: 980 hPa

Trend:

  • Some slow weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Watches and warnings:

  • No. 3 Storm Signal: Hong Kong and Macau. The No. 10 Hurricane Signal is no longer in effect.

Hazards affecting land:

  • Wipha is expected to produce strong tropical storm conditions - potentially destructive winds, heavy surf, and heavy rain - across much of southern China during the next few days, including in Hong Kong and Macau and on Hainan Island. Winds will be stronger at higher elevations, such as upper floors of high-rise buildings, and heavy rainfall could result in flash flooding. For additional information, refer to products from your local weather office.

  • Wipha is likely to produce tropical storm conditions in northern Vietnam, including in the Hanoi metropolitan area, beginning on Tuesday. Heavy rainfall associated with Wipha and its remnants will spread over northern Laos and northern Thailand by Wednesday.

Discussion:

Himawari-9 infrared satellite image (Weathernerds)

Wipha made landfall east of Yangjiang, China at about 1120 UTC. Radar data indicates the internal structure of Wipha had already begun to degrade somewhat prior to landfall, and this degradation has continued as the center has remained over land. Wipha’s central dense overcast has become somewhat fragmented, consisting of some clusters of convection mainly over water and to the east of the center. The eyewall structure has also become fragmented and the eye is no longer distinct on satellite or radar imagery. The current intensity of 60 kts is based on surface observations, a T3.5 Dvorak fix from RJTD, and a CIMSS D-PRINT estimate of 51 kts.

Composite radar image (CyclonicWx)

The forecast for Wipha is problematic because it depends on how much land interaction occurs during the next couple of days. Wipha is forecast to more or less skirt the coast before reaching the Leizhou Peninsula in the next 12 hours or so. Although the current forecasts keep Wipha’s center inland until then, there is a chance the center could move over water, which would cause any weakening due to land interaction to level off or maybe even allow some brief strengthening before reaching the peninsula. After crossing the peninsula, Wipha is forecast to spend about a day over the Gulf of Tonkin, and some reintensification is possible. Shortly before making landfall in Vietnam on Tuesday, Wipha is likely to encounter a sharp increase in shear, which will start its final weakening trend before landfall. Rapid weakening is expected after Wipha moves inland, with dissipation expected by Wednesday.

It should be noted that there is some model guidance, most notably the HWRF, which slows or stalls Wipha in the Gulf of Tonkin and strengthens it quite a bit more than currently forecast. This appears to be unlikely at this time.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

  • 00 hrs: 21.7°N 111.7°E – 60 kts inland

  • 12 hrs: 21.3°N 109.7°E – 55 kts inland

  • 24 hrs: 20.9°N 108.3°E – 60 kts

  • 48 hrs: 20.4°N 105.8°E – 50 kts inland

  • 72 hrs: 20.3°N 103.8°E – 30 kts Post-tropical/remnant low inland

  • 96 hrs: 20.8°N 102.1°E – 20 kts Post-tropical/remnant low inland

  • 120 hrs: Dissipated

JTWC forecast map